Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #39 of 2014 looks like $100 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, 5% above the norm for this weekend ($95 million).
Opening at 3,236 theaters, The Equalizer from Sony grossed $12.6 million Friday and is on track for a $36.4 million opening three-day weekend (slightly above our $34.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a solid $11,200 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is only somewhat positive (58% positive overall and 58% positive with top critics). The Equalizer is headed for $107 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,464 theaters, The Boxtrolls from Universal/Focus grossed $4.9 million Friday and is on track for a $16.6 million opening three-day weekend (somewhat above our $15.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a tepid $4,800 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment, however, is fairly positive (71% positive overall and 66% positive with top critics). The Boxtrolls is headed for $73 million total domestic.
The Maze Runner is headed for $16.7 million this weekend (down 49% from last weekend and very near our $16.3 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Maze Runner has been adjusted up to $96 million. This Is Where I Leave You is headed for $7.0 million this weekend (down 39% from last weekend and a touch above our $6.5 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for This Is Where I Leave You is $39 million. Dolphin Tale 2 is headed for $5.0 million this weekend (down 43% from last weekend and near our $5.1 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Dolphin Tale 2 has been adjusted to $46 million.
| Weekend 39: September 26-28, 2014 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| The Equalizer | Sony | [34.5] | 36.4 | 12.6 | 107 | |
| The Maze Runner | Fox | [16.3] | 16.7 | 5.2 | 96 | |
| The Boxtrolls | Uni/Foc | [15.5] | 16.6 | 4.9 | 73 | |
| This Is Where I Leave You | WB | [6.5] | 7.0 | 2.2 | 39 | |
| Dolphin Tale 2 | WB | [5.1] | 5.0 | 1.2 | 46 | |
| No Good Deed | Sony | [4.4] | 4.4 | 1.4 | 52 | |
| A Walk Among the Tombstones | Uni | [6.1] | 4.2 | 1.3 | 30 | |
| Guardians of the Galaxy | Dis | [3.5] | 3.9 | 1.0 | 335 | |
| Let’s Be Cops | Fox | [1.7] | 1.5 | .45 | 86 | |
| Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles | Par | [1.6] | 1.5 | .35 | 192 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $100 million total Friday-Sunday, up 5% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up 4% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 39 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $100 | The Equalizer $36.4, The Boxtrolls $16.6 | |
| 2013 | $96 | Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 $34.0, Rush $10.0, Baggage Claim $9.0, Don Jon $8.7 | |
| 2012 | $107 | Hotel Transylvania $42.5, Looper $20.8, Pitch Perfect $5.1 | |
| 2011 | $90 | Courageous $9.1, 50/50 $8.6, Dream House $8.1 | |
| 2010 | $86 | Wall Street Money Never Sleeps $19.0, Legends of the Guardians $16.1, You Again $8.4 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $95 | ||
Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.
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