Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #44 of 2014 looks like $76 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, down a big 38% the norm for this weekend ($123 million), which admittedly does not usually have Halloween ruining it by falling on Friday.
Opening at 2,766 theaters, Nightcrawler from Open Road Films grossed $3.2 million Friday and is on track for a $13.0 million opening three-day weekend (somewhat above our $11.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a soft $4,700 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is near universal (96% positive overall and 94% positive with top critics) so it should play fairly well in coming weeks. Nightcrawler is headed for $48 million total domestic.
Opening at 1,935 theaters, Before I Go to Sleep from Clarius grossed $580,00 Friday and is on track for a $1.9 million opening three-day weekend (below our $3.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a dreadful $980 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is fairly negative (40% positive overall and 32% positive with top critics). Before I Go to Sleep is headed for $4 million total domestic.
The Saw 10th Anniversary re-release from Lionsgate/Summit did even worse ($320,000 Friday at 2,063 theaters). It’s headed for maybe $700,000 this weekend, just a bit short of our delusional $5.5 million forecast.
Ouija is headed for $9.7 million this weekend (down 51% from last weekend and above our $8.7 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Ouija has been adjusted to $50 million.
Fury is headed for $8.9 million this weekend (down 33% from last weekend and somewhat above our $7.9 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Fury has been adjusted to $84 million.
Gone Girl is headed for $8.2 million this weekend (down 26% from last weekend and above our $7.2 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Gone Girl has been adjusted to $160 million.
John Wick is headed for $7.9 million this weekend (down 45% from last weekend and near our $8.3 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for John Wick has been adjusted to $50 million.
| Weekend 44: Oct 31-Nov 2, 2014 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Nightcrawler | OpenRoad | [11.5] | 13.0 | 3.2 | 48 | |
| Ouija | Uni | [8.7] | 9.7 | 3.5 | 50 | |
| Fury | Sony | [7.9] | 8.9 | 1.9 | 84 | |
| Gone Girl | Fox | [7.2] | 8.2 | 1.8 | 160 | |
| John Wick | LG/Sum | [8.3] | 7.9 | 1.8 | 50 | |
| The Book of Life | Fox | [5.8] | 7.3 | 1.1 | 57 | |
| St. Vincent | Weins | [5.0] | 5.8 | 1.7 | 35 | |
| Alexander and the Terrible… | Dis | [4.3] | 5.1 | .92 | 63 | |
| Before I Go to Sleep | Clarius | [3.0] | 1.9 | .58 | 4 | |
| Saw 10th Anniversary | LG/Sum | [5.5] | 0.7 | .32 | 2 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $76 million total Friday-Sunday, down 38% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 36% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 44 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $76 | Nightcrawler $13.0, Before I Go to Sleep $1.9, Saw 10th Anniv. $0.7 | |
| 2013 | $119 | Ender’s Game $27.0, Last Vegas $16.3, Free Birds $15.8 | |
| 2012 | $125 | Wreck-It Ralph $49.0, Flight $24.9, Man with the Iron Fists $7.9 | |
| 2011 | $104 | Tower Heist $24.0, A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas $13.0 | |
| 2010 | $143 | Saw 3D $22.5 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $123 | ||
Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.
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