Weekend #14 of 2015 is looking like $192 million for the top 12 films this weekend, way above the norm for this weekend and heading for a record volume.
Opening at around 3,900 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Furious 7 from Universal should average $30,200 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $117.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are amazingly strong: 87% positive overall. Furious 7 is on track for around $290 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $600 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $890 million.
That would be the best Fast and Furious film yet. A remarkably well-managed franchise that would have been left for dead after the Tokyo Drift misfire 95% of the time:
- Fast & Furious 6 (5.24.2013) $238.7 million domestic, $550.0 million overseas, $788.7 million worldwide
- Fast Five (4.29.2011) $209.8 million domestic, $416.3 million overseas, $626.1 million worldwide
- Fast and Furious (4.3.2009) $155.1 million domestic, $208.1 million overseas, $363.2 million worldwide
- The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift (4.16.2006) $62.5 million domestic, $96.0 million overseas, $158.5 million worldwide
- 2 Fast 2 Furious (6.6.2003) $127.2 million domestic, $109.2 million overseas, $236.4 million worldwide
- The Fast and the Furious (6.22.2001) $144.5 million domestic, $62.8 million overseas, $207.3 million worldwide
Opening at 250 theaters Friday, Woman in Gold from Weinstein should average $4,800 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $1.2 million opening weekend). Early reviews are actually quite mediocre: 53% positive so far.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND April 3-5, 2015 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Furious 7 | Uni | PG13 | 87% | 117.5 | 290 | |
| Woman in Gold | Weins | PG13 | 53% | 1.2 | n/a | |
Home and Get Hard are the best of the holdovers on an otherwise fairly soft bench.
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RETURNING FILMS April 3-5, 2015 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Home | Fox | -44% | 29.0 | 175 | |
| Get Hard | WB | -54% | 15.6 | 100 | |
| Insurgent | LG/Sum | -53% | 10.2 | 133 | |
| Cinderella | Dis | -43% | 9.8 | 199 | |
| It Follows | Weins | -41% | 2.3 | 17 | |
| Kingsman: The Secret Service | Fox | -44% | 1.7 | 130 | |
| Do You Believe? | PureFlix | -31% | 1.6 | 9 | |
| Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel | FoxS | -41% | 1.3 | 34 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $126 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 25th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $159 million (while 2013 was $127 million, 2012 was $117 million and 2011 was $103 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very good $192 million, up +52% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up +21% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
4.4.2014
Captain America: The Winter Soldier Dis PG13 Chris Evans Scarlett Johansson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $90 Actual: $95
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $255 Actual: $260
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $455
4.5.2013
Jurassic Park 3D Uni PG13 Sam Neill Laura Dern
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $19
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $57 Actual: $45
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $71
Evil Dead Sony R Jane Levy Shiloh Fernandez
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $26 Actual: $26
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $63 Actual: $54
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $43
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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