Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #21 of 2015 now looks like $143 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, significantly below the norm for this weekend. A definite clunker Memorial Day Weekend at the box office.
Opening at 3,972 theaters Friday, Tomorrowland from Disney is on track for a $32.2 million opening three-day weekend (better than it looked yesterday bit still below our $37.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a somewhat more respectable $8,100 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is perfectly mediocre (50% positive overall and 50% positive with top critics). Tomorrowland is headed for $88 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,240 theaters Friday, Poltergeist from Fox is headed for a $23.0 million opening weekend (a bit lower than yesterday and now slightly below our $25.0 million forecast). The film is on track for a $7,100 per theater average for the weekend. Critical sentiment has shifted negative: 33% positive overall although 47% positive with top critics). Poltergeist is headed for $61 million total domestic.
| Weekend 21: May 22-24, 2015 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Tomorrowland | Dis | [37.0] | 30.9 | 32.2 | 9.74 | 88 | |
| Pitch Perfect 2 | Uni | [35.8] | 32.9 | 30.3 | 9.70 | 190 | |
| Mad Max: Fury Road | WB | [26.2] | 24.0 | 23.9 | 6.75 | 152 | |
| Poltergeist | Fox | [25.0] | 23.8 | 23.0 | 9.35 | 61 | |
| Avengers: Age of Ultron | Dis | [23.9] | 20.1 | 20.9 | 5.36 | 452 | |
| Hot Pursuit | WB | [3.3] | 3.2 | 3.5 | .94 | 32 | |
| Far From the Madding Crowd | FoxS | [—] | 2.2 | 2.3 | .87 | n/a | |
| Furious 7 | Uni | [2.3] | 2.1 | 2.1 | .54 | 353 | |
| Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 | Sony | [2.5] | 1.7 | 1.8 | .43 | 72 | |
| Home | Fox/DWA | [2.1] | 1.5 | 1.7 | .38 | 162 | |
| Age of Adaline | LG | [1.9] | 1.4 | 1.5 | .43 | 43 | |
| Ex Machina | A24 | [—] | 1.1 | n/a | .35 | 25 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Pitch Perfect 2 is now headed for $30.3 million this weekend (down -56% from last weekend and below our $35.8 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $190 million.
Mad Max: Fury Road is headed for $23.9 million this weekend (down -47% from last weekend and still slightly below our $26.2 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $152 million.
Avengers: Age of Ultron is headed for $20.9 million this weekend (down -46% from last weekend and still somewhat below our $23.9 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $452 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $143 million total Friday-Sunday, a touch below yesterday’s estimate ($145 million) and now down -28% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down -20% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 21 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $143 | Tomorrowland $32.2, Poltergeist $23.0 | |
| 2014 | $179 | X-Men: Days of Future Past $90.8, Blended $14.3 | |
| 2013 | $249 | Fast & Furious 6 $97.4, The Hangover Part III $41.7, Epic $33.5 | |
| 2012 | $146 | Men in Black 3 $54.6, Chernobyl Diaries $8.0 | |
| 2011 | $216 | The Hangover Part II $85.9, Kung Fu Panda 2 $47.7 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $198 | ||
Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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