Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #22 of 2015 now looks like $130 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, a little better than it looked yesterday but still significantly below the norm for this weekend.
Opening at 3,777 theaters Friday, San Andreas from Warner Brothers is now on track for a $53.2 million opening three-day weekend (well above our $36.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a solid $14,100 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is down the middle (49% positive overall and 47% positive with top critics). San Andreas is headed for $153 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,815 theaters Friday, Aloha from Sony is headed for a $10.0now million opening weekend (somewhat below our $12.5 million forecast). The film is on track for a sub-par $3,500 per theater average for the weekend. Critical sentiment is pretty negative: 18% positive overall and 21% positive with top critics). Aloha is headed for $25 million total domestic.
| Weekend 22: May 29-31, 2015 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| San Andreas | WB | [36.0] | 49.0 | 53.2 | 18.2 | 153 | |
| Pitch Perfect 2 | Uni | [15.9] | 14.2 | 14.8 | 4.6 | 193 | |
| Tomorrowland | Dis | [17.4] | 12.3 | 13.8 | 3.8 | 93 | |
| Mad Max: Fury Road | WB | [13.5] | 12.7 | 13.6 | 3.9 | 163 | |
| Avengers: Age of Ultron | Dis | [11.8] | 10.7 | 10.9 | 3.6 | 465 | |
| Aloha | Sony | [12.5] | 10.5 | 10.0 | 3.6 | 25 | |
| Poltergeist | Fox | [8.4] | 7.9 | 7.8 | 2.6 | 50 | |
| Far From the Madding Crowd | FoxS | [—] | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.40 | n/a | |
| Hot Pursuit | WB | [2.2] | 1.25 | 1.4 | 0.39 | 33 | |
| Home | Fox/DWA | [—] | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.25 | 162 | |
| Furious 7 | Uni | [1.1] | .95 | .99 | 0.27 | 353 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Pitch Perfect 2 is headed for $14.8 million this weekend (down -52% from last weekend and slightly below our $15.9 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $193 million.
Tomorrowland is headed for $13.8 million this weekend (down -58% from last weekend and well below our $17.4 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $93 million.
Mad Max: Fury Road is headed for $13.6 million this weekend (down -45% from last weekend and near our $13.5 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $163 million.
Avengers: Age of Ultron is headed for $10.9 million this weekend (down -50% from last weekend and slightly below our $11.8 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $465 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $130 million total Friday-Sunday, up from yesterday’s estimate ($123 million) but still down -15% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down -19% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 22 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $130 | San Andreas $53.2, Aloha $10.0 | |
| 2014 | $160 | Maleficent $69.4, A Million Ways to Die in the West $16.8 | |
| 2013 | $161 | Now You See Me $29.3, After Earth $27.5 | |
| 2012 | $135 | Snow White and the Huntsman $56.2 | |
| 2011 | $154 | X-Men: First Class $55.1 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $152 | ||
Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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