Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #14 of 2015 looks like $215 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, way above the norms for this weekend and setting a new record for early April.
Opening at 4,004 theaters Friday, Furious 7 from Universal is now on track for a $143.6 million opening three-day weekend (down slightly from yesterday but still well above our $117.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a still huge $35,900 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is very good (81% positive overall and 82% positive with top critics). Furious 7 is headed for $345 million total domestic.
Opening at 258 theaters Friday, Woman in Gold from Weinstein Company is now on track for a $2.0 million opening three-day weekend (above our $1.2 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a very solid $7,800 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is mediocre to weak, however (48% positive overall and 30% positive with top critics).
| Weekend 14: April 3-5, 2015 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri/ Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Furious 7 | Uni | [117.5] | 149.5 | 143.6 | 67.3/ | 345 | |
| Home | Fox/DWA | [29.0] | 29.7 | 27.4 | 11.3/ | 163 | |
| Get Hard | WB | [15.6] | 13.9 | 12.9 | 5.0/ | 83 | |
| Cinderella | Dis | [9.8] | 11.0 | 10.3 | 4.1/ | 199 | |
| Insurgent | LG/Sum | [10.2] | 10.0 | 10.0 | 4.0/ | 127 | |
| It Follows | Rad | [2.3] | 2.6 | 2.5 | .92/ | 16 | |
| Woman in Gold | Weins | [1.2] | 1.5 | 2.0 | .61/ | n/a | |
| Kingsman: The Secret Service | Fox | [1.7] | 1.8 | 1.7 | .64/ | 130 | |
| Do You Believe? | PureFlix | [1.6] | 1.9 | 1.5 | .54/ | 12 | |
| Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel | FoxS | [1.3] | 1.0 | 1.0 | .36/ | 33 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Home is headed for $27.4 million this weekend (down -47% from last weekend and now somewhat below our $29.0 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $163 million.
Get Hard is headed for $12.9 million this weekend (down -62% from last weekend and below our $15.6 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $83 million.
Cinderella is headed for $10.3 million this weekend (down -40% from last weekend and near our $9.8 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $199 million.
Insurgent is headed for $10.0 million this weekend (down -54% from last weekend and near our $10.2 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $127 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $215 million total Friday-Sunday, up +70% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up +35% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 14 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $215 | Furious 7 $143.6 | |
| 2014 | $159 | Captain America: The Winter Soldier $95.0 | |
| 2013 | $127 | Evil Dead $25.8, Jurassic Park 3D $18.6 | |
| 2012 | $117 | American Reunion $21.5, Titanic 3D $17.3 | |
| 2011 | $103 | Hop $37.5, Source Code $14.8, Insidious $13.3 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $126 | ||
Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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