The weekend continues to look very close to the way it did yesterday morning. Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted looks like $35.5 million, according to the studio estimate this morning (down a decent 41% from the opening weekend and hitting our forecast in Wednesday’s ShowbuzzDaily Weekend Predictions). Prometheus is looking like more like a 60% second-weekend drop (to just over $20 million). Rock of Ages will gross $15.1 million for its opening weekend according to the Warner Brothers studio estimate, but don’t be surprised if the actual number released Monday is more like $14.5 million. And Sony is estimating That’s My Boy will hit $13 million for its opening weekend. A $12.4 million is more likely in the actuals Monday, when Sunday is actually counted and all of those father-son Father’s Day movie dates fail to materialize.
The box office volume for the top 12 films is looking like $124 million for the weekend, slightly better than it looked yesterday but still way down from past years.
The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend: Rock of Ages ($44 million) and That’s My Boy ($34 million).
Second week films: Madagascar 3 ($215 million, up somewhat from last week’s initial estimate) and Prometheus ($134 million, down somewhat from last week).
Third week films: Snow White and the Huntsman ($155 million, adjusted back up from last week).
Fourth week films: Men in Black 3 ($183 million, adjusted back up somewhat) and Best Exotic Marigold Hotel ($42 million).
Fifth week films: Battleship ($65 million, even with last week), The Dictator ($62 million, down a touch from last week again) and What to Expect When You’re Expecting ($43 million, even with last week).
| Weekend 24: June 15-17, 2012 | ($ millions) | ||||
| vs Last Wknd | Wknd Studio Proj. | Showbuzz Domestic Final | |||
| Madagascar 3 | Par DW | -41% | 35.5 | 215 | |
| Prometheus | Fox | -60% | 20.2 | 134 | |
| Rock of Ages | WB | 15.1 | 44 | ||
| Snow White and the Huntsman | Uni | -40% | 13.8 | 155 | |
| That’s My Boy | Sony | 13.0 | 34 | ||
| Men in Black 3 | Par | -28% | 10.0 | 183 | |
| Marvel’s The Avengers | Dis | -21% | 8.8 | 607 | |
| Best Exotic Marigold Hotel | Fox | -33% | 2.2 | 42 | |
| Moonrise Kingdom | Foc Uni | +40% | 2.2 | n/a | |
| What to Expect When You’re Expecting | LG | -52% | 1.3 | 43 | |
| Battleship | Uni | -43% | 1.3 | 65 | |
| The Dictator | Par | -50% | 1.1 | 62 | |
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are now looking like $124 million total Friday-Sunday, down 16% from the same calendar weekend last year and down 20% from the average for this weekend the past four years.
| ($ millions) | |||
| WEEKEND #24 | Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend | |
| 2012 | $124 | Rock of Ages $15, That’s My Boy $13 | |
| 2011 | $147 | Green Lantern $53, Mr Popper’s Penguins $18 | |
| 2010 | $191 | Toy Story 3 $110, Jonah Hex $5 | |
| 2009 | $145 | The Proposal $34, Year One $20 | |
| 2008 | $138 | Get Smart $39, The Love Guru $14 | |
| Avg 2008-11 | $155 | ||
Next Weekend
Opening wide next weekend are Brave from Disney/ Pixar, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter from 20th Century Fox and Seeking a Friend for the End of the World from Focus/ Universal. These films will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year: Cars 2 ($66.1 million opening weekend) and Bad Teacher ($31.6 million).
Check back later today for our update on international grosses.
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