June 17, 2012

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES June 15-17 — Yep, the Weekend Still Sucks

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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The weekend continues to look very close to the way it did yesterday morning.  Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted looks like $35.5 million, according to the studio estimate this morning (down a decent 41% from the opening weekend and hitting our forecast in Wednesday’s ShowbuzzDaily Weekend Predictions).  Prometheus is looking like more like a 60% second-weekend drop (to just over $20 million).  Rock of Ages will gross $15.1 million for its opening weekend according to the Warner Brothers studio estimate, but don’t be surprised if the actual number released Monday is more like $14.5 million.  And Sony is estimating That’s My Boy will hit $13 million for its opening weekend.  A $12.4 million is more likely in the actuals Monday, when Sunday is actually counted and all of those father-son Father’s Day movie dates fail to materialize.    

The box office volume for the top 12 films is looking like $124 million for the weekend, slightly better than it looked yesterday but still way down from past years.


The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend: Rock of Ages ($44 million) and That’s My Boy ($34 million).

Second week films:  Madagascar 3 ($215 million, up somewhat from last week’s initial estimate) and Prometheus ($134 million, down somewhat from last week).

Third week films:  Snow White and the Huntsman ($155 million, adjusted back up from last week).

Fourth week films: Men in Black 3 ($183 million, adjusted back up somewhat) and Best Exotic Marigold Hotel ($42 million).

Fifth week films: Battleship ($65 million, even with last week), The Dictator ($62 million, down a touch from last week again) and What to Expect When You’re Expecting ($43 million, even with last week).


Weekend 24: June 15-17, 2012 ($ millions)
vs Last Wknd Wknd Studio Proj. Showbuzz Domestic Final
Madagascar 3 Par DW -41% 35.5 215
Prometheus Fox -60% 20.2 134
Rock of Ages WB 15.1 44
Snow White and the Huntsman Uni -40% 13.8 155
That’s My Boy Sony 13.0 34
Men in Black 3 Par -28% 10.0 183
Marvel’s The Avengers Dis -21% 8.8 607
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel Fox -33% 2.2 42
Moonrise Kingdom Foc Uni +40% 2.2 n/a
What to Expect When You’re Expecting LG -52% 1.3 43
Battleship Uni -43% 1.3 65
The Dictator Par -50% 1.1 62


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are now looking like $124 million total Friday-Sunday, down 16% from the same calendar weekend last year and down 20% from the average for this weekend the past four years.

($ millions)
WEEKEND #24 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend
2012 $124 Rock of Ages $15, That’s My Boy $13
2011 $147 Green Lantern $53, Mr Popper’s Penguins $18
2010 $191 Toy Story 3 $110, Jonah Hex $5
2009 $145 The Proposal $34, Year One $20
2008 $138 Get Smart $39, The Love Guru $14
Avg 2008-11 $155

Next Weekend

Opening wide next weekend are Brave from Disney/ Pixar, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter from 20th Century Fox and Seeking a Friend for the End of the World from Focus/ Universal.  These films will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year: Cars 2 ($66.1 million opening weekend) and Bad Teacher ($31.6 million).

Check back later today for our update on international grosses.

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About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.