One useful way to look at box office momentum is to compare the Opening (normally the first Friday-Sunday or in some cases the first wide-release weekend and all the additional days before that) to the Next 7 Days, the first full week in wide release (from the first Monday in wide release through the second Sunday in wide release). The average film opens with $16 million through the first Sunday and then follows up with $13 million for the Next 7 Days, a drop of -19%. A top 10% film opens with $53 million through the first weekend and then another $43 million for the Next 7 Days, an identical drop of -19%. Anytime a film in the Next 7 Days comes close to matching the Opening (say a -5% drop or less), it is a noteworthy sign of great word of mouth, repeat business and a long run in the theaters. However, truly extraordinary films build in the Next 7 Days over the Opening.
American Sniper is one of those outliers. The film grossed $93 million through its Opening (including the platform release in NY and LA since Christmas), and then the Next 7 Days (through this past Sunday) jumped a big +15% to $107 million (a combination of a small -28% drop in the second weekend from the first but also because of extraordinary weekday business). Not only is the +15% increase amazing, the fact that American Sniper topped $100 million in its first full week after opening puts it in rare company. Since 2004, exactly 13 films have managed to gross $100 million during the Next 7 Day period (roughly one film a year). Almost all (10 of 13) are sequels; the exceptions: The Dark Knight, Avatar and now American Sniper. And only three of these 13 films managed to increase from Opening to Next 7 Days: Avatar (+77%), Toy Story 3 (+6%) and now American Sniper (+15%).
| FILMS WITH $100+ MILLION FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK AFTER THE OPENING WEEKEND
($ millions, North American box office) |
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| Title | Wide Release Date | Opening (thru 1st wide Sun) | Next 7 Days (1st Mon-2nd Sun) | Next 7 Days vs Opening | Total Domestic | Total Overseas |
| American Sniper | 1.16.2015 | 93 | 107 | +15% | TBD | TBD |
| Hunger Games Mockingjay Pt 1 | 11.21.2014 | 122 | 104 | -15% | 334 | 379 |
| Hunger Games Catching Fire | 11.22.2013 | 158 | 138 | -13% | 425 | 440 |
| Iron Man 3 | 5.3.2013 | 174 | 111 | -36% | 409 | 806 |
| Dark Knight Rises | 7.20.2012 | 161 | 126 | -22% | 448 | 633 |
| Marvel’s The Avengers | 5.4.2012 | 207 | 166 | -20% | 623 | 888 |
| Harry Potter Deathly Hallows Pt 2 | 7.15.2011 | 169 | 104 | -38% | 381 | 947 |
| Toy Story 3 | 6.18.2010 | 110 | 117 | +6% | 415 | 648 |
| Avatar | 12.18.2009 | 77 | 136 | +77% | 715 | 1991 |
| Dark Knight | 7.18.2008 | 158 | 155 | -2% | 533 | 466 |
| Pirates Dead Man’s Chest | 7.7.2006 | 136 | 123 | -10% | 423 | 642 |
| Spider-Man 2 | 6.30.2004 | 152 | 104 | -32% | 373 | 410 |
| Shrek 2 | 2.21.2004 | 129 | 108 | -16% | 441 | 475 |
It is incredible that American Sniper is even in the company of these other films, most of which played with enormous built-in audience interest (primarily by being part of an existing film franchise). Where do we go form here? The ultimate domestic box office for American Sniper is very hard to model — at this point anything seems possible. As for the film’s potential overseas, the American military story normally does not travel well abroad. It would be shocking for American Sniper to come close to overseas grosses of the comic book and YA source material above. But at this point, it’s foolish to make any declarative statements about a movie that has simply crushed through the wall of expectations at every turn.
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