OPENINGS: The $31.6M first day for THOR: THE DARK WORLD (Disney) was about 24% higher than the $25.5M opening for the first Thor, an increment likely to reduce as the movie’s run continues, since sequels tend to be more front-loaded. A $200M US total would be more than 10% up from Thor‘s $181M. Where Dark World will make its real profit is overseas: the first Thor made $268.3M outside the US, and Dark World is likely to be at $220M by tomorrow, just 2 weeks into its run and with Japan among the territories yet to open. $350-400M overseas is doable, and even though a $550-600M worldwide total isn’t Iron Man 3 money ($1.2B around the world), it will put Disney/Marvel’s $300M production and marketing costs in the rear-view mirror. As long as Disney can prime the pump with periodic Avengers epics, this template should keep the system in successful motion for quite a few years to come.
12 YEARS A SLAVE (Fox Searchlight) reached semi-wide release with its expansion to 1144 theatres, and after a $1.85M Friday, it’s headed for a $7M weekend and a per-theatre average around $6K. As has been the case throughout its run so far, this is a good but not remarkable number, in the same neighborhood as art-house hits Moonrise Kingdom, Precious and Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. All of those ran out of steam before reaching $50M, and it remains to be seen whether critics awards and Oscar season give 12 Years more stamina.
Considering that it’s had a tiny fraction of the attention and acclaim 12 Years has generated over the past several weeks, the expansion of ABOUT TIME (Universal) didn’t go all that badly, with a $1.5M Friday at 1200 theatres. That should give it $4.5M for the weekend and a per-theatre average close to $4K. Without a lot of buzz going for it, though, the time-travel rom-com will likely find it difficult to hold on at that level.
HOLDOVERS: Opening ENDER’S GAME (Summit/Lionsgate) a week before Thor was a big risk, and the 70% Friday-to-Friday drop to $2.9M shows that it didn’t pay off. With a likely $9M weekend and $65M total in the US, and production/worldwide marketing costs at $225M+, Ender’s will now have to worry more about breaking even than about breaking a new franchise.
LAST VEGAS (CBS) and FREE BIRDS (Relativity) held very well for their constituencies, down 37% and 34% from last Friday to a respective $3.2M and $2.6M. Each should hit $10M for the weekend, and make their way to $50M US totals, decent results for moderately-budgeted efforts.
GRAVITY (Warners) and CAPTAIN PHILLIPS (Sony) keep plugging on, down 36% and 34% week-to-week, on their way to $250M and $100M in the US.
LIMITED RELEASE: The attempt of THE BOOK THIEF (20th) to find an entry into the year-end box office and Oscar race doesn’t seem very promising after what will probably be a $100K weekend at 4 NY/LA theatres. That $25K average will shrink fast as the film expands, and with mediocre reviews, word-of-mouth will have to catch fire for it to have any chance. The documentary THE ARMSTRONG LIE (Sony Pictures Classics) had a slow start, with a probable $7K average at 5 theatres.
ALL IS LOST (Lionsgate/Roadside) expanded to 401 theatres and is headed for a weekend not much over $1M and a $3K per-theatre average, likely to fall out of the Oscar picture except, of course, for Robert Redford’s Best Actor nod. On a smaller scale, DALLAS BUYERS CLUB (Focus/Universal) expanded to 35 theatres, and should have a solid weekend per-theatre average of around $20K, impressively not much less than the $29K average it had when opening last week at only 9 theatres. That suggests strong word-of-mouth.
NEXT WEEKEND: No big release wanted any part of the weekend with Thor hanging on at one end and The Hunger Games opening a few days after the other. The consequence is that only THE BEST MAN HOLIDAY (Universal) will have even semi-wide distribution. On the art-house front, Alexander Payne’s marvelous NEBRASKA (Paramount) will start its Oscar campaign in a few theatres.
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