OPENINGS: Was it the cash grab of splitting the final novel into 2 movies? The tabloid antics of its stars? In any case, “close but no cigar” seems to be the result for THE TWILIGHT SAGA: BREAKING DAWN PART 2 (Summit/Lionsgate). Its $71.2M opening day (including Thursday 10PM and midnight screenings) is $400K below the start for Breaking Dawn 1, and $1.5M below franchise record-holder New Moon. A likely $135M weekend would similarly make it the 3rd best of the Twilight openings, although not by much. The series has been notoriously front-loaded, so its final result may be 4th best at $260-280M, ahead of only the original Twilight.
The news was smaller but better for LINCOLN (Disney/DreamWorks/20th), surprisingly strong at only 1775 theatres with a $6.4M Friday that should mean an opening weekend over $20M. That’s exceptionally good for a very serious 2 1/2 hour piece of history whose star, while brilliant, has never been a box-office draw, and it gives the picture plenty of room to expand and play through the holiday/awards season.
HOLDOVERS: Considering what was expected to be highly enthusiastic word of mouth, and its appeal to older audiences who don’t flood theatres on opening weekend, the hold for SKYFALL (Sony/MGM) feels a little soft, with a 60% Friday-to-Friday decline that will likely stabilize around 55% for a roughly $40M weekend. However, by Sunday, it should be within hailing distance of the current US record for the Bond franchise, Quantum of Solace‘s $168.4M, which it should pass over Thanksgiving, and of course that’s in addition to the giant $500M it’s already earned overseas.
FLIGHT (Paramount) added 565 theatres to its run, but still fell 40% from last Friday to $2.5M, suggesting it’ll end up with a $8.5M 3rd weekend and around $75-80M in the end. WRECK-IT RALPH (Disney) is headed for a 45% drop, on its way to $160M or so. ARGO (Warners) continues to lead the long-runners, down about 40% on its way to $100M. Like Argo, TAKEN 2 (20th), PITCH PERFECT (Universal) and HERE COMES THE BOOM (Sony) all lost theatres this week, and will fall 45-50%.
LIMITED RELEASE: Oscar hopefuls SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK (Weinstein) and ANNA KARENINA (Focus/Universal) both began their runs with 16-theatre releases, and the early numbers have to be considered disappointing–particularly for Silver Linings, which is supposed to have the distinction of being the season’s crowd-pleaser. Its $25-30K per-theatre average suggests there’s much work for Harvey Weinstein to do, with a 400-theatre expansion (cut back from the original plan) set for Wednesday. Anna Karenina was even more rarefied, likely to have about a $20K average. Where neither picture wants to end up is where THE SESSIONS (Fox Searchlight) now is: expanded to 516 theatres, with a lousy per-theatre average that probably won’t hit $2000 for the weekend.
NEXT WEEK: Because of the holiday, the bulk of the new arrivals start on Wednesday: the expensive and ambitious literary adaptation THE LIFE OF PI (20th), animated RISE OF THE GUARDIANS (DreamWorks Animation/Paramount), and semi-orphaned RED DAWN (FilmDistrict), shot several years ago and caught up in MGM’s bankruptcy. As noted, Silver Linings Playbook will also expand on Wednesday. Friday brings 2 more awards hopefuls (mostly in the performance categories) in limited release: HITCHCOCK (Fox Searchlight), and RUST AND BONE (Sony Classics).
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