BEHIND THE FRIDAY BOXOFFICE – 12/14/12

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OPENINGS:  This weekend consists of THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY (Warners/MGM) and then everything else.  Hobbit set a December opening day record with $37.5M, and it will set the opening weekend record for the month (currently held by I Am Legend with $77.2M), but it’s worth noting that its number isn’t very much higher than the $34.5M Wednesday opening for Return of the King, which had ticket prices at 2003 levels and no 3D or IMAX premiums.  (King also had midnight screenings of only $8M, compared to $13M for Hobbit, meaning that during opening day itself, King actually earned a bit more.)  None of this is to question that Hobbit is going to be a blockbuster hit–in addition to its US take, it’s already grossed $56M overseas–but we’ll find out between now and year’s end how frontloaded it turns out to be.

HOLDOVERS:  Nothing else was remotely close to Hobbit, with no major openings having arrived for the past 2 weeks.  LINCOLN (Disney/DreamWorks/20th) continues to hold spectacularly well, down only about 25% (with the addition of about 10% more theatres).  It’s already over $100M, and should thrive throughout the holidays.  SKYFALL (Sony/MGM), RISE OF THE GUARDIANS (DreamWorks Animation/Paramount) and LIFE OF PI (20th) are also holding well, with drops under 40% for each of them, although Guardians and Pi are both still struggling to get anywhere near $100M, and Skyfall could possibly reach $300M.  THE TWILIGHT SAGA: BREAKING DAWN PART 2 (Summit/Lionsgate), a more frontloaded franchise, will drop closer to 45-50%, but it’s still running ahead of all the Twilight movies except Eclipse, and it’s $10M in front of Breaking Dawn 1.  Skyfall is now less than $6M behind Breaking Dawn 2, a margin that will be lower by the end of the weekend, and there’s a good chance Bond will edge ahead of the vampires before both films are done.  (On a worldwide basis, Skyfall is already far ahead.)

Last week’s opening, the ill-fated PLAYING FOR KEEPS (FilmDistrict), didn’t find many fans, and will be down around 50% for the weekend to $3M or so, on its way to perhaps a $15M total.

LIMITED RELEASE:  SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK (Weinstein) remains planted at 371 theatres, and its awards success over the week seems to have kicked in nicely, with a weekend that’s likely to be down only around 10% from last week (although its per-screen average of $5K or so is still nothing to cheer about).  HITCHCOCK (Fox Searchlight) didn’t get much mileage out of Helen Mirren’s Golden Globe and SAG nominations, expanding to 561 theatres with a per-screen average that may not reach $2K.  HYDE PARK ON HUDSON (Focus/Universal) went to 36 theatres with an unimpressive probable $7500 average.

NEXT WEEKEND:  The deluge of holiday openings begins.  THE GUILT TRIP (Paramount), with Barbra Streisand and Seth Rogen, will get a jump on the competition by opening on Wednesday (along with a 3D reissue of MONSTERS INC (Disney/Pixar)), then on Friday the Tom Cruise vehicle JACK REACHER (Paramount),  Judd Apatow’s THIS IS FORTY (Universal) and the performance documentary CIRQUE DU SOLEIL: WORLDS AWAY (Paramount) arrive.  Meanwhile, the justly acclaimed ZERO DARK THIRTY (Sony) and critical favorite AMOUR (Sony Pictures Classics) go into limited release on Wednesday, followed by THE IMPOSSIBLE (Summit/Lionsgate), ON THE ROAD (IFC) and David Chase’s NOT FADE AWAY (Paramount Vantage) on Friday.