Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 10.1.2023

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OPENINGS:  PAW PATROL:  THE MIGHTY MOVIE (Nickelodeon/Paramount) launched with $23M, above expectations and an impressive rise over the $13.1M start for the 2021 installment of the franchise.  It also has $23.1M overseas from 45 markets (the 2021 film earned 72% of its global total internationally).  This series is produced at relatively low cost by the standards of big-screen animation, so no doubt further chapters will be forthcoming.

SAW X (Lionsgate), boasting the best reviews in the 19 years of the series (84% on Rotten Tomatoes), began at the higher end of projections with $18M.  That’s a bit above the $16.4M start for 2017’s Jigsaw (and far above the spin-off Spiral, which only managed an $8.8M opening).  Saw X also brought in $11.3M from 50 overseas territories, suggesting a different mix from Jigsaw, which earned 64% of its worldwide total outside the US.  Although Saw X faces heavy competition from the other horror openings scheduled for Halloween month, its low budget should guarantee some profit.

Unfortunately for THE CREATOR (20th/Disney), its $150M+ in production/marketing costs are unlikely to be recouped after a lackluster $14M launch in the US, with $18.3M more from 48 overseas territories.  There aren’t many non-IP genre epics being produced these days, and these results won’t encourage the studios to finance more of them.

The week’s Christian-themed entry THE BLIND (Fathom), which had an official Thursday opening, took in $4.1M over the 3-day weekend, against what were probably extremely low costs.

A re-release of the 1984 concert documentary STOP MAKING SENSE (A24) expanded from its limited premium-screen run, tripling its theater count to 786 theaters but rising only 22% to a subdued $1M.

Another music documentary, CARLOS (Sony) opened at the low end of wide release in 541 theaters and averaged less than $700 in each.

HOLDOVERS:  THE NUN II (New Line/Warners) dropped 45% to $4.7M in its 4th weekend, on its way to $90M in the US, about 20% below its predecessor but still quite profitable.  The overseas total is $154.4M after a $12.8M weekend in 75 markets, which is consistent with The Nun earning 68% of its worldwide total internationally.

A HAUNTING IN VENICE (20th/Disney) lost 40% to $3.8M in its 3rd weekend, and may not reach $45M in the US.  That would still be in the range of Death On the Nile‘s US total (on lower production costs).  Internationally, Venice has $58.2M after a $7M weekend in 52 territories, heading for a total that would likewise be a bit below Nile‘s $91.7M.

The expansion of DUMB MONEY (Black Bear/Columbia/Sony) went badly, more than quadrupling its theater count but rising just 44% to $3.5M.  It may not even hit $20M in the US, and has had a negligible international release thus far.

THE EQUALIZER 3 (Columbia/Sony) was down 43% to $2.7M in its 5th weekend, and continues to be on a path for around $95M in the US, down from the $101.5M/$102.1M results of the earlier installments.  The overseas total is $72.4M after a $3M weekend in 51 markets, also slightly lower than its predecessors.

EXPEND4BLES (Lionsgate) plunged 69% from its opening to $2.5M, and might not see $25M in the US.  That would be down roughly 40% from Expendables 3.  The franchise makes its money overseas, but so far that total is just $6.1M (Expendables 3 took in $175.3M outside the US).

Coming off its Imax week, BARBIE (Warners) had an unusually steep tumble, down 55% to $1.4M in its 11th weekend, as it approached the end of its remarkable run.  It may still get to $640M in the US, and the overseas total is $800.3M after a $2.1M weekend in 66 territories.

MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 3 (Focus/Universal, also on VOD) fell 61% to $1.2M in its 4th weekend, possibly able to reach $30M in the US, which would be half of Wedding 2.  It also has $8.5M overseas after a $700K weekend in 26 markets, far below Wedding 2‘s $30.9M international total.

LIMITED RELEASE:  THE KILL ROOM (Shout) opened at 355 theaters with a weekend per-theater average below $250.  BEFORE THE SUNSET (Freestyle) averaged $5700 at 4.

NEXT WEEKEND:  The only wide release is the reboot THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER (Blumhouse/Universal), but there’s a mini-festival of indies entering limited release, including DICKS: THE MUSICAL (A24), SHE CAME TO ME (Vertical), THE ROYAL HOTEL (Neon), and FOE (MGM/Amazon).