Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 11.20.2022

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OPENINGS:  The $9M start for THE MENU (Searchlight/Disney) was below the $10.1M launch of Barbarian–and The Menu cost about $20M more to produce.  Combine that with the fact that The Menu is really more of a very dark satire than a horror movie, and its prospects look questionable.  The film also opened in 36 overseas markets with $6.2M.

THE CHOSEN (Angel/Fathom),actually the first 2 episodes of a Christian online television show’s third season, found its target audience in force, giving it an $8.2M weekend.  Last year’s related release Christmas With the Chosen earned 2/3 of its total box office in its first 5 days after a Wednesday opening, so this is likely to be very frontloaded, but still an impressive result on tiny production and marketing costs.

There was virtually no audience for SHE SAID (Universal), which despite strong reviews (88% on Rotten Tomatoes) limped to a $2.3M weekend at over 2000 theaters.  With the not-really-exceptions of spectacles like Elvis and Everything Everywhere All At Once, and nostalgia plays like The Lost City and Ticket to Paradise, the non-franchise, non-horror box office remains largely dormant.  She Said also took in about $600K in 26 overseas markets.

HOLDOVERS:  As last week’s numbers suggested, BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER (Marvel/Disney) is behaving more like a conventional blockbuster than its remarkable predecessor.  Weekend 2 was down 63% to $67.3M, similar to the 67% drop to $61.8M for Doctor Strange In the Multiverse of Madness, and sharply distinct from Black Panther‘s 45% drop to $111.7M (off a holiday opening, no less).  After 10 days of release, Wakanda Forever is already $115M below Black Panther‘s pace, and even though the entire marketplace will get a bump from the Thanksgiving holiday, it may not reach $500M in the US.  Overseas, Wakanda Forever has $258.3M after a $69.8M weekend in 50 territories.

BLACK ADAM (DC/New Line/Warners) lost 44% to $4.5M in its 5th weekend, and may need a stretch to reach $175M in the US.  It has $209.2M overseas after a $5.1M weekend in 76 markets.

TICKET TO PARADISE (Universal, also on VOD) was down 46% to $3.2M in its 5th weekend, on its way to $70M in the US.  Its international total is $95.5M after a $1.1M weekend in 79 territories.

In its last weekend before hitting direct competition from Strange World, LYLE, LYLE, CROCODILE (Columbia/Sony) shed 41% to $1.9M in its 7th frame, and with the holiday ahead it should reach $50M in the US before it’s done.  It has $35.1M overseas after a $2.5M weekend in 48 markets.

SMILE (Paramount, also on Paramount+) fell 51% to $1.2M in its 8th weekend, and still may hit $110M in the US.  It’s almost there overseas, with $109.3M after a $1.3M weekend in 50 territories.

LIMITED RELEASE:  The numbers remained unimpressive for awards contenders.  BONES & ALL (MGM/Amazon) averaged an OK $24K in 5 theaters in its debut (and that studio estimate assumes a strong Sunday despite a heavy Friday-to-Saturday drop), before going wide for the holiday.  THE INSPECTION (A24) averaged $13K at 5.  EO (Sideshow) averaged $12K at 2.  In its second and last week before going wide, THE FABELMANS (Universal) dropped 42% for a $24K average at 4.

NEXT WEEKEND:  New Thanksgiving entries include the animated STRANGE WORLD (Disney), and the war movie DEVOTION (Columbia/Sony).