OPENINGS: RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET (Disney) was somewhat frontloaded, with a 44% drop on Day 2, so it didn’t challenge Frozen‘s $93.6M record for the biggest 5-day Thanksgiving opening. But Disney has nothing to complain about with a #2 ranking and $84.5M ($55.7M over the 3-day weekend), putting it on track for $250M at the US box office, based on the performance of Thanksgiving openings Coco and Moana. That would be a huge 30% bump over Wreck It Ralph. The overseas release strategy will be gradual over the next several months, with a $41.5M start in 18 initial markets (including China).
CREED II (MGM/New Line/Warners) was robust with $55.8M over 5 days ($35.3M since Friday), the largest live-action Thanksgiving launch ever, and similarly up 32% from the 5-day Thanksgiving start for the first Creed, suggesting a $140M+ US total on moderate costs. Creed II hasn’t yet opened internationally, and will hope to build on the first Creed, which only earned 37% of its worldwide box office overseas.
After those two, the holiday openings took a steep step down. ROBIN HOOD (Summit/Lionsgate) had a dim $9.1M weekend ($14.2M since Wednesday) and may only reach $40M in the US, a disaster for an action spectacle with $160M+ in production/marketing costs. Early signs are that it can’t hope for rescue overseas, with an $8.7M opening in 33 territories.
Several awards hopefuls expanded to the lower end of wide release this weekend, and none of them shined. GREEN BOOK (DreamWorks/Participant/Universal) had a $5.4M weekend ($7.4M since Wednesday) in 1063 theatres, belying its narrative about being a “crowd-pleaser.” It’s apparently going to hold its current theatre count next weekend and will expand further on December 7 (after the Golden Globe nominations are announced), but unless it shows some strength quickly, it may have trouble holding onto a theatrical presence once the holiday blockbusters start rolling in. It hasn’t yet opened overseas.
BOY ERASED (Focus/Universal), now in 672 theatres, averaged a weak $1700 per theatre over the 3-day weekend for $1.2M ($1.6M since Wednesday).
THE FRONT RUNNER (Columbia/Sony) was even worse at 807 theatres with a per-theatre average of $800 over the 3-day weekend, a total of $600K ($900K since Wednesday).
HOLDOVERS: THE GRINCH (Illumination/Universal) had the holdover lead with a $30.2M 3-day weekend ($35.4M since Wednesday), down 22% weekend-to-weekend, and now on track for $240M in the US. It has $35.3M in early overseas release after a $7.6M weekend in 33 territories.
FANTASTIC BEASTS: THE CRIMES OF GRINDELWALD (Warners) is starting to look like a major disappointment. Despite the holiday, it fell 52% over the 3-day weekend to $29.7M ($43M since Wednesday), and now seems unlikely to get much past $175M in the US, a 25% drop from the first Beasts. Although the franchise continues to be much bigger overseas, its $322.6M total after a $83.7M weekend in all major markets suggests that it may fall 20% there as well, for a $650M worldwide total. That would still be profitable on $350M in costs, but if the series doesn’t stabilize, it may have difficulties lasting until its projected 5-film target.
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY (Regency/20th) dipped just 14% weekend-to-weekend to $13.9M ($19.4M since Wednesday), as it heads toward $180M in the US. As big as it is here, it’s a monster overseas, with $320.2M after a $38M weekend, and it may well chase $600M worldwide.
INSTANT FAMILY (Paramount) is benefiting from world of mouth, down 14% over the 3-day weekend to $12.5M ($17.4M since Wednesday), and may reach $60M in the US. That’s still not necessarily profitable on $100M+ in costs, but it could leg out if it has international appeal when it opens overseas.
WIDOWS (Regency/20th) dropped 36% weekend-to-weekend to $8M ($10.6M since Wednesday), on its way to a so-so $40M in the US. It has $13.4M in early overseas release.
A STAR IS BORN (MGM/Warners) lost 30% weekend-to-weekend to $3M ($4.1M since Wednesday), and we’ll see if Warners can keep it in theatres long enough for it to cross the magic $200M mark. Overseas, it’s at $162.4M.
VENOM (Tencent/Columbia/Sony) remains an overseas juggernaut. In the US, it dropped 61% to $800K over the 3 day weekend ($1.1M since Wednesday), and may reach $215M. Internationally, though, it’s at $610.8M ($242.9M from China) after a $21.3M weekend in 63 territories.
LIMITED RELEASE: THE FAVOURITE (Fox Searchlight) was tailor-made for the NY/LA arthouse corridor, and it played like gangbusters there with a $105K per-theatre average over the 3-day weekend. That’s being reported as the best per-theatre average of the year, but note that it includes Tuesday and Wednesday night “preview” screenings; it’s also worth noting that these exclusive openings can be misleading, as per the film Favourite (sort of) beat, Suspiria, which launched with a $92K average and then died in wide release, currently at a $2.3M total. The critically-acclaimed SHOPLIFTERS (Magnolia) opened with an OK $18M average at 5 theatres. AT ETERNITY’S GATE (CBS/Lionsgate) expanded to 31 with a $6800 average. MARIA BY CALLAS (Sony Classics) averaged $2900 at 55.
NEXT WEEKEND: We’re entering 2 weekends of barren times at the box office, traditionally 2 of the lowest-grossing weekends of the year before the holiday avalanche arrives The only wide opening next week is the low-budget horror item THE POSSESSION OF HANNAH GRACE (Screen Gems/Sony), and limited releases include ANNA & THE APOCALYPSE (Orion/MGM) and HEAD FULL OF HONEY (Warners).
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