Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 5.26.2019

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OPENINGS:  ALADDIN (Disney) will probably be in the top half-dozen Memorial Day openings when Monday brings it to $105M or so (the 3-day total is $86.1M).  Compared to other Disney live-action reboots of animated hits, though, it had a subpar 5% drop on Saturday (The Jungle Book gained 28% on its 2nd day of release, Cinderella was up 18%, and even the woeful Dumbo rose 15%).  That may suggest frontloading and perhaps word of mouth that isn’t as strong as exit polls indicate.  Nevertheless, Aladdin has a good chance of hitting $300M in the US, with only The Secret Life of Pets 2 in its way for the next month.  Overseas, Aladdin is in all major territories, and opened with $121M.  However, in some parts of the world, next week’s Godzilla, King of Monsters may blunt its long-term prospects.  At the moment, Aladdin appears to be on its way to $600M+ worldwide.

BRIGHTBURN (Screen Gems/Sony) had an unassuming $7.5M start ($9M with Monday), and was equally soft with a $4.5M launch in 50 international markets.  A $35M worldwide total won’t pay the bills, even with low costs.

BOOKSMART (Annapurna/UA/MGM) gambled on word of mouth, and so far it isn’t paying off.  Despite almost unanimously rave reviews, the film dropped 16% on Saturday for a $6.5M weekend ($8M with Monday), and it may have trouble getting past $20M in the US, with limited prospects overseas.

ROCKETMAN (BRON/Paramount) doesn’t arrive in the US for a week, but it opened in Elton John’s home market of the UK with $6.4M, more like A Star Is Born ($5.4M) than Bohemian Rhapsody ($12.5M).

THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS 2 (Illumination/Universal) also had an early UK opening with $4.1M, which is a bit scary since the first Secret Life launched there with $13.4M.

HOLDOVERS:  JOHN WICK CHAPTER 3: PARABELLUM (Thunder Road/Summit/Lionsgate) dropped 57% from its opening weekend to $24.4M ($32M with Monday).  That’s significantly steeper than the 45%/47% Weekend 2 drops for the other Wicks, suggesting that Parabellum will burn out faster.  Nevertheless, the third installment is the biggest hit of the franchise to date and should reach $150M in the US.  Overseas, it’s at $74.4M after a $24.8M weekend in 74 markets, still the rare action franchise that generates more interest in the US than abroad.

AVENGERS: ENDGAME (Marvel/Disney) declined by 44% in its 5th weekend to $16.8M ($22M with Monday), and tomorrow it will pass $800M in the US, probably landing at $835M.  Its overseas total is $1.88B after a $15.3M weekend.  It’s currently $110M behind Avatar‘s $2.79B record, and will likely come up short, although if Disney wants the record, it may stunt a late-summer return to theatres before home release

POKEMON: DETECTIVE PIKACHU (Legendary/Warners) lost 47% to $13.3M in its 3rd weekend ($17M with Monday), and may not reach $150M in the US.  It’s slowing down overseas as well, where it’s at $236.8M afer a $24.3M weekend in virtually all major markets, and may end up at $450M worldwide, moderately profitable on $300M in costs.

A DOG’S JOURNEY (Amblin/Reliance/Walden/Alibaba/Universal) fell 49% on its 2nd weekend to $4.1M ($5M with Monday), and may not see $25M in the US.  It has $31.6M overseas.

THE HUSTLE (UA/MGM) slid 37% to $2.8M in its 3rd weekend ($3.7M with Monday), on its way to $35-40M in the US.  Overseas, it’s at $31.1M after a $3.5M weekend in 31 territories.

THE SUN IS ALSO A STAR (MGM/Warners) collapsed by 69% in its 2nd weekend to $800K ($1M with Monday), and it won’t get much past an ugly $5M in the US.  It’s barely opened overseas.

LIMITED RELEASE:  ECHO IN THE CANYON (Greenwich) had an extremely splashy opening with a $52K per-theatre average in 2 theatres, but that included not just in-theatre Q&As, but musical performances, so it may not be indicative of the film’s strength on its own.  THE TOMORROW MAN (Bleecker Street) had a slow start with a $4800 average at 4.  The weekend featured many expansions:  THE BIGGEST LITTLE FARM (Neon) averaged $2700 at 180; THE WHITE CROW (Sony Classics) had a dim $1000 average at 356; THE SOURVENIR (A24) averaged a fair $6200 at 23; ALL IS TRUE (Sony Classics) averaged $2200 at 64; NON-FICTION (IFC) had a $2100 average at 60; and PHOTOGRAPH (Amazon) averaged $1K at 124.

NEXT WEEKEND:  GODZILLA, KING OF MONSTERS (Legendary/Warners) provides the spectacle, with counterprogramming from the US arrival of Rocketman and the low-budget thriller MA (Universal).  Limited releases include THE FALL OF THE AMERICAN EMPIRE (Sony Classics).