OPENINGS: CRAWL (Paramount) may be an example of a studio outsmarting itself. Paramount held no critics screenings, presumably because disdain was expected, and thus was unable to create any advance buzz around a response that turned out to be remarkably enthusiastic (88% on Rotten Tomatoes). The result was a tepid $12M opening, and since even that estimate relies on the best Sunday hold in the Top 10, it may not stand up in finals. Even with positive word of mouth, Crawl may not get past $35M in the US, with some money possibly left on the table. Crawl also opened in 20 international markets, with $4.8M to date.
STUBER (20th/Disney) is the kind of routine action-comedy that used to be a reliably moderate asset for Hollywood, but the new moviegoing paradigm has less room for its ilk, and it managed a bare $8M for the weekend, pointing toward a $25M US total. It also opened in 9 international territories and took in $3M.
THE LION KING (Disney) won’t arrive here until Thursday night, but it’s already begun its China campaign with a robust $54.7M weekend (higher than Aladdin‘s total in that country).
HOLDOVERS: SPIDER-MAN: FAR FROM HOME (Columbia/Sony) dropped 51% from last weekend to $45.3M, and while that’s much better than Homecoming‘s 62% Weekend 2 drop, it’s a bit misleading, because Far From Home had already been in theatres for 3 days as of last Friday. (The Amazing Spider-Man, which also had a Tuesday opening, dropped 44% in Weekend 2.) Although The Lion King will take a chunk of its family audience, Far From Home has no action competition until Hobbes & Shaw in 3 weeks, so it could reach $375M in the US. Overseas, it had another huge weekend with $100M in all major markets for $572.5M to date. Next week, Far From Home should pass Spider-Man 3‘s $890.9M to become the franchise’s biggest grosser worldwide, and it’s on target to hit $1B+.
TOY STORY 4 (Pixar/Disney) enjoyed its last pre-Lion King weekend with a 39% drop to $20.7M, still on its way to $400M in the US. It also has $424.7M internationally after a $48.1M weekend in all major markets except Germany, and seems likely to pass $900M worldwide, a bit below the $1.07B of Toy Story 3.
YESTERDAY (Universal) continued to hold well, down 33% to $6.8M in its 3rd weekend, and on track to exceed $60M in the US. Overseas, it’s at $32.2M after a $7.8M weekend in 48 territories, with China, Italy and Japan among those still to open.
No film this summer has touched the word of mouth of ALADDIN (Disney), down a mere 22% to $5.9M in its 8th weekend. Even with the upcoming direct competition from stablemate The Lion King, it should get to $350M in the US, and with overseas at $628.7M after a $14.6M weekend, Aladdin will pass The Jungle Book‘s $967.7M worldwide total next week, and is poised to reach the $1B landmark.
ANNABELLE COMES HOME (New Line/Warners) dropped 41% to $5.6M in Weekend 3, on its way past $70M in the US. That will be the lowest of the Conjuring canon titles, but nonetheless a moneymaker. Overseas, it’s at $112.8M after a $18.1M weekend in all major territories except Japan.
MIDSOMMAR (A24) lost 46% to $3.6M from last weekend, although as with Far From Home, the percentage looks better than it otherwise would because Midsommar had opened the previous Wednesday. It’s still en route to $25M in the US, and hasn’t yet opened overseas.
LIMITED RELEASE: THE FAREWELL(A24) had the best opening weekend per-theatre average of the year, with $88K in each of its 4 NY/LA theatres, a number that’s even more impressive since it’s not an indie that boasts major star power. The Indian-market SUPER 30 (Reliance) opened with a $2900 average at 317. THE ART OF SELF-DEFENSE (Bleecker Street) launched with a so-so $17K average at 7. BETHANY HAMILTON: UNSTOPPABLE (Entertainment Partners) opened at 205 with a dim $1200 average. THE LAST BLACK MAN IN SAN FRANCISCO (A24) increased its theatre count by about 10%, and averaged $1700 at 207. WILD ROSE (Neon) expanded to 161 and averaged $1800. MAIDEN (Sony Classics) widened to 68 with a $3300 average. MARIANNE & LEONARD: WORDS OF LOVE (Roadside) averaged $3700 at 30.
NEXT WEEKEND: No one wants to do battle with The Lion King. Even in the indie world, the highest-profile opening is the documentary DAVID CROSBY: REMEMBER MY NAME (Sony Classics).
About the Author
