Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 7.23.2023

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OPENINGS:  The most hyped box office weekend of the year delivered and then some.  BARBIE (Mattel/Warners) burst into theaters with $155M, technically the best of the year (although the $146.4M for Super Mario Bros came after a Wed-Thurs start that had already brought in $58.3M).  Among the many records set by the blockbuster were the highest non-franchise opening in the history of Warner Bros (needless to say Barbie will now kick off a franchise of its own), and for Greta Gerwig, the highest US opening in history for a female director (#2 worldwide behind Captain Marvel, which was co-directed by Anna Boden).  Nor was it just a US phenomenon, boasting $182M in 69 international territories, the 2nd biggest start of the year behind Fast X‘s $253M (virtually that entire shortfall was attributable to China, where Fast X started with $78M, and where the Barbie doll isn’t part of the culture and the movie earned just $8.2M).  By summer event-movie standards, the production/worldwide marketing costs for Barbie were a relatively thrifty $250M, which should mean massive profits for all concerned.

Although its numbers were below Barbie‘s, based on degree of difficulty the performance of the grim, dense, R-rated 3-hour biography OPPENHEIMER (Universal) was just as impressive.  The $80.5M US launch blew past expectations, representing a triumph not just for Christopher Nolan but for the studio marketing department, which successfully sold the film as a thriller spectacle.  Remarkably, Oppenheimer was ahead of all Nolan’s openings except The Dark Knight and The Dark Knight Rises.  As with Barbie, Oppenheimer was huge worldwide, with $93.7M in 78 overseas markets.  Nolan’s films have historically had leggy runs (which will be helped by Oppenheimer‘s 3-week stranglehold on Imax screens), and this one’s production cost was even lower than Barbie‘s, so it should be a signal victory for Nolan and for big-budget passion projects in general.

HOLDOVERS:  There’s some controversy about 3rd place.  The indie distributor of SOUNDS OF FREEDOM (Angel) claimed a 26% Weekend 3 decline to $20.1M, but other studios say the drop was more like 30%, putting it in 4th place.  (Angel has already stirred dissension with such sales gimmicks as “crowdfunded” tickets.)  In any case, Sounds is undoubtedly the sleeper hit of the season, on track for $175M in the US on tiny costs.  It still hasn’t attempted release overseas.

Whether it was in 3rd or 4th place, MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – DEAD RECKONING PART 1 (Skydance/Paramount) served as proof that a rising tide doesn’t necessarily lift all boats.  Deprived by Oppenheimer of its Imax screens, and by that and Barbie of many other premium auditoriums, the 2nd weekend fell 64% to $19.5M, and that was even worse than it looked because of last week’s Wednesday opening, which should have cushioned the weekend a bit.  It marked the worst Weekend 2 collapse in the 27-year history of the franchise, by a wide margin (the previous low point was a 53% drop for Mission 2).  The same was true worldwide, where Dead Reckoning fell to $55M in 71 territories.  It may still reach $575M worldwide, which is a lot of money–but not so much when costs are around $450M.

INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY (Lucasfilm/Disney) lost 45% to $6.7M, and like Dead Reckoning it may reach $180M in the US.  However, despite similar $450M costs, it doesn’t have the international appeal of the Mission: Impossible franchise, and with only $176M overseas to date after $8.2M in 52 territories, it’s destined for financial loss.

INSIDIOUS: THE RED DOOR (Blumhouse/Screen Gems/Sony) fell 50% to $6.5M in its 3rd weekend, on its way to $90M in the US, strong for the genre.  It also has $84.8M overseas after a $12M weekend.

ELEMENTAL (Pixar/Disney) dipped 36% to $5.8M in its 6th weekend, and should pass $155M in the US, still at the low end of Pixar’s record but not a catastrophe.  Overseas, it has $219.4M after an $18.3M weekend in 51 markets.

SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE (Marvel/Sony Animation) was down 54% to $2.8M in its 8th weekend, and should pass $380M in the US before it’s done, which may put it neck-and-neck with Barbie for the summer crown.  The overseas total is $300.2M.

TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS (Hasbro/Paramount) fell 68% to $1.1M in its 7th weekend, and may need to stretch for $160M in the US.  The international number is $271.5M.  Worldwide, Beasts won’t match The Last Knight‘s $605.4M.

Nearing the end of its run, NO HARD FEELINGS (Columbia/Sony) tumbled 67% to $1.1M, and should squeeze past $50M in the US.  The overseas total is $33.4M.

LIMITED RELEASE:  Despite expanding from 6 theaters to 51, THEATER CAMP (Searchlight/Disney) fell 12% for the weekend, giving it a thin $5200 weekend per-theater average.  GO WEST (Purdue) averaged $2100 at 24.  AFIRE (Sideshow) widened to 8 with a $3300 average.

NEXT WEEKEND:  Summer blockbuster season is likely over, especially since striking actors are no longer permitted to promote their openings.  HAUNTED MANSION (Disney) will sell comedy horror, while TALK TO ME (A24) will rely on horror horror.