Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 9.24.2023

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OPENINGS:  THE EXPEND4BLES (Lionsgate) had a disastrous start with $8.3M, about half of both expectations and the $15.9M opening of Expendables 3 in 2014.  Expend4bles may only total $20M in the US, and while the franchise makes most of its revenue overseas (82% on Expendables 3), it still seems unlikely to break even on $150M+ in production/marketing costs.

The low-budget horror entry IT LIVES INSIDE (Neon) had a slow start with $2.6M, and probably won’t get close to $10M in the US.  It currently has international revenue below $500K.

DUMB MONEY (Columbia/Sony) expanded from 8 theaters to the low end of wide release with an unpromising $2.5M.  It’s due to widen further next weekend, but doesn’t appear to be on a trajectory that would get it much higher than $10M in the US.  It hasn’t yet opened overseas.

HOLDOVERS:  THE NUN II (New Line/Warners) managed to hold onto the top slot for the weekend, thanks to the low competition.  It dropped 42% to $8.4M in its 3rd weekend, and will hope to stretch its way to $100M, although it faces direct competition next weekend from the new Saw installment.  That would put it in the range of The Nun‘s $117.5M US total.  As with the initial installment, the overseas number is much stronger with $135M so far.

A HAUNTING IN VENICE (20th/Disney) fell 56% from last week’s opening to $6.3M, and may not get past $45M in the US.  That would put it on par with Death On the Nile‘s $45.6M (although Nile fell a softer 49% in its Weekend 2), and since Venice reportedly cost $30M less to produce than Nile, the economics may justify another entry in the franchise.  As with Nile, about 2/3 of the box office is coming from overseas, where Venice has $46.2M to date.

THE EQUALIZER 3 (Columbia/Sony) dipped 35% to $4.7M in its 4th weekend, and appears to be headed for around $95M in the US, which would be a bit below the franchise’s previous results ($101.5M/$102.1M).  This is one of the unusual action series to perform less well overseas than in the US, and the current total is $67.4M.

Boosted by an Imax run that included some extra post-credits footage, the 10th weekend of BARBIE (Warners) was down a mere 16% to $3.7M.  It may reach $640M before it’s done, but it’s unlikely to catch the next film on the all-time US box office list, Jurassic World‘s $653.4M.  The international total is $797M.

MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 3 (Focus/Universal) dropped 37% to $3M in its 3rd weekend, and might reach $35M in the US.  That would be down 41% from 2016’s Greek Wedding 2.  The new installment has only $6.1M overseas to date.

BLUE BEETLE (DC/Warners), which is due to hit VOD this week, lost 28% to $1.8M in its 6th weekend, and might stretch to $75M in the US.  It also has $53.1M overseas.  This isn’t enough to avoid red ink on $175M in production/marketing costs.

OPPENHEIMER (Universal) continued to hold well, down 22% to $1.6M in its 10th weekend as it headed toward $325M in the US.  The remarkable overseas total is $604.8M.

TEENAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLES: MUTANT MAYHEM (Nickelodeon/Paramount, also on Paramount+) declined 19% to $1.6M in its 8th weekend, and should pass $120M in the US.  However, the appeal wasn’t as high overseas, where the total is $56.4M.

GRAND TURISMO (Columbia/Sony) was down 36% to $1.5M in its 5th weekend, and is unlikely to reach $50M in the US.  It has $68.7M overseas, but that probably isn’t enough for breakeven on around $130M in costs.

LIMITED RELEASE:  The Christian-aimed I CAN (Kappa) opened with a dim $1100 weekend per-theater average at 135.  AMERIKATSKI (Variance) expanded to 39 with a $2100 average.  THE ORIGIN OF EVIL (IFC) averaged just $200 at 206.  MY SAILOR, MY LOVE (Music Box) averaged $800 at 35.

NEXT WEEKEND:  THE CREATOR (20th/Disney) is a rare big-budget sci-fi effort without any underlying IP.  It will have to face off with SAW X (Lionsgate), while PAW PATROL: THE MIGHTY MOVIE (Nickelodeon/Paramount) will target families.