January 28, 2018

Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 1.28.2018


OPENINGS:  In the US, THE MAZE RUNNER: THE DEATH CURE (20th) had an OK start with $23.5M, down from $32.5M/$30.3M for the first 2 films in the series.  It’s on track for $60-65M here.  However, it’s off to a much better start overseas, where it’s in 70 markets (with about half a dozen still to open, including Japan, Germany and Mexico), and has $82M after a $62.6M weekend.  That’s in line with the rest of the series, which earned 71-74% of its worldwide total overseas.  The final result should provide a moderate profit, but not enough to make Fox regret that Death Cure is the end of the trilogy.

HOSTILES (Entertainment Services) expanded to wide release with a reported $10.2M (the studio is assuming a strong Sunday, so we’ll see tomorrow if the total remains at 8 figures).  Entertainment Services may end up making back its deal for domestic rights and marketing if an older audience turns out over the next several weeks, but the film has an uncertain future overseas, and with $125M in worldwide costs, it’s hard to see a route to profit for the producers.

HOLDOVERS:  What is there to say about JUMANJI: WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE (Columbia/Sony) at this point?  It dipped just 16% in its 6th US weekend to $16.4M, and has a chance of passing Spider-Man 2‘s $373.6M US total to become the #2 film (behind the original Spider-Man) in Sony history.  Overseas, it’s at $484M after a $17.7M weekend, with Japan still to open in April.  It’s also the #3 title of Dwayne Johnson’s career, behind only 2 Fast and the Furious installments.

Just as impressive, although with lower numbers, is THE GREATEST SHOWMAN (20th), down a tiny 11% in Weekend 6 to $9.5M, and well on its way to $150M in the US.  It also has $133M overseas after a $10M weekend, with China and Japan yet to open.  With $225M+ in costs on the books, those markets will determine just how profitable Showman will be.

12 STRONG (Alcon/Black Label/Warners) and DEN OF THIEVES (STX) were in virtual lockstep, respectively down 45% to $8.6M and 45% to $8.4M, and both likely to end up around $45M in the US.  These productions had moderate costs (although 12 Strong spent more on marketing, per the usual Warners strategy), and their fates will be determined overseas, where 12 Strong is early in its run at $5.4M, and Den of Thieves hasn’t yet opened.

PADDINGTON 2 (Studiocanal/Warners) held well with a 31% decline to $5.6M, but that still puts it on track to a mild $45M in the US.  Luckily, it’s carrying $153.8M in its pockets from overseas release.

FOREVER MY GIRL (Roadside) increased its theatre count by 28%, which allowed its weekend total to drop just 13% to $3.7M.  It’s heading for $15M or so in the US, with little apparent international appeal.

The main holdover story of the weekend, though, was about the newly-minted Oscar nominees.  They were led by THE POST (DreamWorks/Reliance/Participant/20th), down 25% to $8.9M in the US, on its way to $80M+, and with $24.5M overseas after a $10.2M weekend in 34 territories, with plenty of the world still to come.  THE SHAPE OF WATER (Fox Searchlight) more than doubled its theatre count and more than doubled its weekend to $5.7M, on its way to $50M+ in the US, with $13.9M overseas to date.  3 BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI (Fox Searchlight) added more than 500 theatres and almost doubled its weekend to $3.6M, and should reach $40M+ in the US, and also has $34.3M overseas after a $8.6M weekend in 29 territories.  I, TONYA (Neon) climbed by 161 theatres and saw its weekend rise 4% to $2.7M, in its way to $25M in the US.  PHANTOM THREAD (Focus/Universal) boosted its count by 125 theatres and slipped 11% for the weekend to $2.9M, headed for $15M+ in the US.  DARKEST HOUR (Focus/Universal) kept its theatre count more or less as-is and dropped 21% to $2.2M, but it’s still en route to $50M+ in the US, and it’s also at $53.1M overseas after a $9.6M weekend in 50 territories.  LADY BIRD (A24) added almost 500 theatres and jumped 61% to $1.9M, headed for $45M+ in the US.  CALL ME BY YOUR NAME (Sony Classics) remained one of the more niche nominees, holding its theatre count and declining 6% to $1.3M, with $15M in its sights, and with $6.2M overseas.

LIMITED RELEASE:  The Indian-language PADMAAVAT (VPD) earned $4.3M at 324 theatres.  THE INSULT (Cohen), nominated for Foreign-Language Film, widened to 10 theatres with a $6100 average.  Documentary nominee FACES PLACES (Cohen), also in 10 theatres, averaged $1400.

NEXT WEEKEND:  Super Bowl weekend is dead air for multiplexes, and the only wide opening is the horror movie WINCHESTER (Lionsgate).  Foreign-Language Film nominee A FANTASTIC WOMAN (Sony Classics) arrives in limited release.

About the Author

Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on and In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."