OPENINGS: None of the newcomers made much of an impression. At the moment, MCFARLAND USA (Disney) is claiming a slim victory over THE DUFF (CBS/Lionsgate), $11.3M vs. $11M, but that’s based on a far more aggressive Sunday estimate by Disney (predicting a 30% Sunday drop vs 42%), and when the numbers are so close, we won’t know the real winner (or considering these numbers, “winner”) until Monday’s final report. McFarland is likely to have the higher US total in the end, with an older and more family audience that doesn’t all show up on opening weekend, but it also cost considerably more than DUFF to produce, so both may end up on the precipice between red ink and black.
There’s no dispute about HOT TUB TIME MACHINE 2 (MGM/Paramount). Only the rosiest of glasses could imagine any profit for the sequel flop, which managed just $5.8M for the weekend, less than half of the modest $14M opening of the original. It doesn’t matter how cheaply this one was produced–it will never recover its marketing costs.
HOLDOVERS: 50 SHADES OF GREY (Universal/Focus) was always destined for a big Week 2 drop, considering its front-loaded audience of (mostly female) superfans–but the weekend after Valentine’s Day set up the plunge to be particularly deep. It fell 73% to $23.2M, worse than the 62% Week 2 drop for the original Twilight and even the 70% declines for its sequels, not to mention the Sex and the City movies and The Fault In Our Stars. Of course, with $130.1M earned in the US to date, the moderately-budgeted movie is still a huge hit. And although we tend to think of the foreign movie market as being built around fantasy-action and animated spectacles, 50 Shades is a bonanza overseas, with another giant weekend of $68.1M in 58 territories, down a relatively modest 56% from its opening. 50 Shades is running more than twice as high outside the US as here, with $280.5M internationally to date, and that proportion will probably widen in coming weeks, with a possible worldwide total of $600M on the way, three-quarters of it overseas. The sequels will undoubtedly be on the way, although there are reports of plenty of issues on that front, with director Sam Taylor Johnson likely out and novelist EL James insisting on writing the script herself.
KINGSMAN: THE SECRET SERVICE (MARV/20th) held fairly well with a 52% drop to $17.5M, giving it $67.1M in the US and a chance of reaching $100M. It’s also doing roughly twice as well overseas, with a $33M weekend in 54 territories. It has $86.6M overseas, and could get to $250M worldwide, which may be enough to get a sequel made on production/marketing costs of around $200M.
THE SPONGEBOB MOVIE: SPONGE OUT OF WATER (Nickelodeon/Par) isn’t holding all that well for a family movie, down 51% to $15.5M (by way of comparison, the 3rd weekend for last year’s LEGO Movie was down 37%), but it’s at $125.2M, and should get to $150M+ in the US. Combined with $76M overseas (after a $21.9M weekend in 44 territories), it’s also well on the road to profitability against roughly $200M in production/marketing costs, especially with the added merchandising bump that kids’ movies provide.
AMERICAN SNIPER (Village Roadshow/Warners) and THE IMITATION GAME (Weinstein) continued to lead the Best Picture nominees, with Sniper down 41% to $9.7M (a massive $319.6M US total), and Imitation down 26% to $2.6M (a very impressive $83.9M in the US). Sniper also earned $20.5M overseas, where its total is $108M, with some major territories yet to come. The other Best Picture contenders were all below $1M for the weekend, but STILL ALICE (Sony Classics), all but certain to pick up the Best Actress award tonight, is doing quite well already, adding 50% to its theatre count for a total of 765, and up 28% to $2.2M, with $8M to date and a robust upside.
JUPITER ASCENDING (Village Roadshow/Warners) continued its swift descent, down 60% to $3.7M, with $39.5M in the US and $114.5M worldwide, nowhere near enough to touch its $300M+ production/marketing costs.
LIMITED RELEASE: Best Foreign Film nominee WILD TALES (Sony Classics) had a healthy start with a $21K weekend average at 4 NY/LA theatres. WHAT WE DO IN THE SHADOWS (Paladin) widened to 16 theatres with an OK $9K average. Another Foreign Film nominee, TIMBUKTU (Cohen Media) remained a specialized taste, spreading to 53 theatres with a $2200 average. LEVIATHAN (Sony Classics) increased by 50% to 43 theatres with a $1900 average.
NEXT WEEKEND: Will Smith could use a hit, and he’s changing things up by abandoning his usual family-friendly sci-fi spectacles for the R-rated con game comedy-drama FOCUS (Warners). Its only new competition is THE LAZARUS EFFECT (Relativity), a low-budget horror item that incongruously stars real actors Mark Duplass and Olivia Wilde. On the specialty side, film festival titles ’71 (Roadside) and MAPS TO THE STARS (Focus/Universal) have their debuts.
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