Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 5/8/16

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OPENINGS:  Word of mouth kicked in on Saturday for CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR (Marvel/Disney), which fell a mild 19% from opening day, much better than the 38% drop for Batman v Superman and the 33% for The Avengers: Age Of Ultron (although not quite as good as the 10% for Iron Man 3, 14% for The Avengers or 15% for Jurassic World).  With a 26% decline projected for Sunday, its weekend estimate is $181.8M, putting it behind only the Avengers pair, Jurassic and The Force Awakens.  No direct competition is on the way until the end of May, so it has a solid road to beating Iron Man 3‘s $409M US total, and could possibly challenge Ultron‘s $459M.  Things are just as rosy overseas, where Civil War added China, Russia and a few more territories to last weekend’s openings and increased its weekend take by 10% to $220M, for a total to date of $496.6M.  Worldwide, Civil War should easily join the $1B club, the question being whether it can reach the $1.2B level of Iron Man 3 or even the $1.4-1.5B superhero gold standard of the Avengers mega-franchise.  In short, Civil War is everything Warners hoped Batman v Superman would be, the only more general concern being that Friday’s slightly muted start suggested that in the absence of a genuine event, the genre could find it increasingly difficult to generate supercharged levels of instant excitement.

NEIGHBORS 2: SORORITY RISING (Universal) doesn’t arrive in the US for 2 weeks, but has put its toe into overseas release, earning $9M in 16 territories.  The first Neighbors did extremely well overseas for an R-rated US comedy with a $120.5M total, so Sorority will be hoping to do at least as well.

HOLDOVERS:  Disney has set a record for the fastest studio to reach $3B worldwide this year, as it amazingly has 3 of the year’s top 5 releases (and that will become 3 of the top 4 by next week, when Civil War will pass Deadpool).  THE JUNGLE BOOK (Disney) contributed $21.9M for the weekend in the US, down 50%, which is a reasonable decline considering that Civil War took over the bulk of its premium-priced IMAX and 3D theatres.  Jungle Book is at $285M in the US, and will reach toward Batman v. Superman‘s $327.3M.  Overseas, Jungle Book brought in $24.1M for a $491.2M total with Japan still on the way.

MOTHER’S DAY (Open Road) was of course put in the release calendar with today in mind, and it’s forecasting a 59% increase from last Sunday, which would give it a 8% increase for the weekend to $9M.  We’ll see whether that number holds up, but even if it does, the movie’s total will be at $20.7M with a plunge almost inevitable next week, so $30M may still be its US ceiling.  It hasn’t yet opened overseas.

THE HUNTSMAN: WINTER’S WAR (Perfect World/Universal) fell apart, down 63% in the US to $3.6M and a $40.4M total, with $50M unlikely.  It’s in somewhat better shape overseas, with $105.9M after a $4.2M weekend, but it still won’t come close to its $225M+ costs of production/marketing.

KEANU (New Line/RatPac/Warners) did nothing for the big-screen careers of Key & Peele, down an ugly 67% from last weekend to $3.1M and a $15.1M US total, which means it will lose money even on its modest budget.  BARBERSHOP: THE NEXT CUT (MGM/New Line/Warners) fell 56% to $2.7M, now at $48.8M, and unlikely to get much past $55M.  RATCHET & CLANK (Gramercy/Focus/Universal) toppled by 70% to $1.5M and a terrible $7.1M US total.

Back in the wonderful world of Disney, ZOOTOPIA (Disney) hit a milestone.  With a 50% drop to $2.7M in the US, its running total is $327.6M, putting it ahead of BATMAN V. SUPERMAN: DAWN OF JUSTICE (DC/RatPac/Warners), which is at $327.3M after a 73% weekend drop to $1M.  Zootopia was already comfortably ahead worldwide, $956.4M vs. $865.5M.  The only mild disappointment for Zootopia is that after a $5.7M weekend overseas, it may not have quite enough gas to reach the $1B worldwide promised land.

LIMITED RELEASE:  A BIGGER SPLASH (Fox Searchlight) made a moderate splash with a $22K per-theatre average at 5 NY/LA arthouses.  DHEEPAN (Sundance/IFC) started with an $11K average at 2 theatres in NY only.  SING STREET (Weinstein) expanded to 153 theatres with a not-so-tuneful $2800 average.  THE MEDDLER (Sony Classics) more than doubled its run for Mother’s Day to 53 theatres with an OK $5600 average.  THE MAN WHO KNEW INFINITY (IFC) similarly averaged $5500 with an expansion to 40 theatres.  THE FAMILY FANG (Starz), which is also available on VOD, averaged $2000 at 52.

NEXT WEEKEND:  The older-skewing MONEY MONSTER (Columbia/Sony) will aim for the edges of the Civil War audience, while THE DARKNESS (High Top) looks for horror fans.  There are several titles entering limited release, including HIGH-RISE (Magnolia), THE LOBSTER (A24), LOVE & FRIENDSHIP (Amazon/Roadside) and LAST DAYS IN THE DESERT (Broad Green).