MONDAY UPDATE: Father’s Day was a holiday, all right… for some movies. 22 JUMP STREET vastly overestimated its appeal to dads, taking a sizable 30% hit on Sunday and falling an ugly $3M below its original weekend number to $57.1M. HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 2 was also a bit weaker than expected, down 21% on Sunday and falling $500K from its estimate to $49.5M. (Wall Street expressed its displeasure with the soft DRAGON 2 opening by selling DreamWorks Animation stock in sizable amounts today.) THE FAULT IN OUR STARS was no dad’s choice at the multiplex, and its weekend was almost $1M below expectations, down to $14.8M. On the other hand, EDGE OF TOMORROW was dead-on in thinking it would be just what fathers wanted, with a tiny 4% Sunday decline and a final weekend at $16.5M. (Unfortunately, that was still just $300K better than expected, and won’t help EDGE reach profitability.) Other Father’s Day favorites: GODZILLA (up 5% from the original estimate), X-MEN: DAYS OF FUTURE PAST (up 3%) and–proving not that all fathers have good taste–A MILLION WAYS TO DIE IN THE WEST (up 6%).
Both of the weekend’s newcomers are counting on healthy Father’s Day results to justify their round-number estimates.
OPENINGS: 22 JUMP STREET (Sony/Columbia) sank a heavy 26% on Saturday, but is nevertheless hoping to fall just 14% on Sunday to reach its $60M weekend projection. Last year’s R-rated comedy This Is The End fell 18% on Father’s Day, so that may be a bit over-optimistic. But even if the final number is $1M or so lower, that’s still a terrific opening for a movie that will cost around $175M with worldwide marketing costs included, and the meta-joke of its end credits promise of many sequels to come should hold true. The opening weekend is considerably higher than the ones for Neighbors ($49M) and Ted ($54.4M) among R-rated comedies, and only looks slim compared to the blockbuster Hangover 2 ($85.9M). 22 is also finding success overseas, with $7M in just 14 territories (21 Jump Street made only $63.1M in its entire overseas run).
HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 2 (DreamWorks Animation/20th) is predicting a 17% Sunday drop, ,and that seems fair given the holiday and its family-movie credentials, but yesterday’s 7% drop is cause for a bit of concern about its $50M weekend estimate. (The original Dragon grew by 45% on its 2d day of release.) Even if it hits that number, the result is somewhat disappointing, not very much higher than the $43.7M opening for the first Dragon, which was famously a slow-starter that played on for weeks. Sequels don’t usually operate that way, and DreamWorks will have to hope that Dragon 2 benefits from the lack of any real competition in the market for the next month, until the July 18 arrival of Disney’s Planes: Fire and Rescue. Overseas, Dragon 2 had a fair $24.8M start in 25 territories,, the only major one being Russia. Dragon is certainly a hit, but it may not be the giant one DreamWorks needed after 3 flops out of its last 4 releases.
HOLDOVERS: MALEFICENT (Disney) held surprisingly well in the face of Dragon 2‘s arrival, down just 45% to $19M and a $163.5M US total. It has a fair chance of reaching $200M before it’s done. Overseas, it earned $37.2M in 53 markets (not yet including China or Japan) for a $272.9M total. Its worldwide total of $436.4M is already within reach of Oz The Great and Powerful‘s $493.3M (that movie underperformed internationally), and should easily move ahead, perhaps as soon as next week when Maleficent has its China opening. It could be headed for $600M+ worldwide.
EDGE OF TOMORROW (Warners) desperately needed a boost from its woeful opening, and didn’t get it. In the US, despite a forecast that has it as the biggest beneficiary of Father’s Day families (down a tiny 10%), it’s still down 44% to $16.2M and a $56.6M total–it won’t get much beyond $85M in the US, which is next to nothing for an action epic with $325M+ in production/marketing costs. (TV watchers in the US may have noticed a sudden Warners onslaught for the July 2 opening of Tammy, which may be in part the studio re-assigning its marketing dollars to the Melissa McCarthy comedy.) Overseas, Edge took in $37.4M, down heavily from last weekend’s $82M. (It dropped 60% in China alone.) It has $181M overseas, and with only Japan left to open among major markets, it’s unlikely to get higher than $375M worldwide, a major money-loser.
THE FAULT IN OUR STARS (20th) felt the ugly result of front-loading, down 67% from last weekend to $15.7M for a $81.7M total (plus $16.4M overseas from 37 territories, bringing that total to $39.3M). Nevertheless, Fault is a giant success given its total production/marketing costs of $75-100M, with a possible worldwide total of $200M+.
X-MEN: DAYS OF FUTURE PAST (20th) held very well for a blockbuster in its 4th weekend, down just 37% to $9.5M. It became the first summer opening to cross $200M at the US box office with $205.9M, and is now at $663.5M worldwide after a $18.2M weekend overseas . It should ultimately top $700M, and may end up above The Amazing Spider-Man 2, currently at $700.3M worldwide but with much less gas left in its tank (under $1M in the US this weekend).
GODZILLA (Warners) is almost done in the US, down 49% to $3.2M ($191.3M so far), but it arrived in China this weekend for a $38M opening. That’s a big number (much better than Edge of Tomorrow did last week at $25M), but not overwhelming, slightly below Captain America: The Winter Soldier ($38.8M), and farther away from X-Men: Days of Future Past ($39.4M), Pacific Rim ($45.3M) and Amazing Spider-Man 2 ($46.5M). Godzilla is at $429.6M worldwide, and with just Japan left to open (although that should be a bonanza for this movie), it’s unlikely to get past $550M, which will make it less of a blockbuster than it first appeared to be.
22 Jump Street took air out of the market’s other comedies this weekend, as NEIGHBORS (Universal) dropped 53% to $2.5M ($143.1M in the US, plus $88.8M overseas), A MILLION WAYS TO DIE IN THE WEST (Universal) lost 58% to $3.1M ($38.9M in the US, plus $26.7M overseas), and BLENDED collapsed by 60% to $1.6M ($40.3M in the US, with foreign release still to come.) Remarkably, THE OTHER WOMAN (20th), just about done in the US with a $82.7M total, is even more successful overseas–a rarity for a US comedy–with $97.5M.
The box office’s little engine that could is CHEF (Open Road), which had a sensational drop of just 13% this weekend, despite losing almost 20% of its theatres, for $2.3M and a total of $14.1M so far. Word of mouth for the crowd-pleasing little comedy has clearly kicked in.
LIMITED RELEASE: THE ROVER (A24) had a mediocre start with just a $14K average in 5 NY/LA theatres. The weekend’s expansions also weren’t much to speak of, as OBVIOUS CHILD (A24) had an $8K average at 18 theatres, and WORDS & PICTURES (Roadside) went much wider and had a $1800 average at 217 theatres. However, the lack of excitement for new arrivals helped some of the more longrunning attractions. IDA (Music Box), expanding its theatres by 15%, climbed 12% with a $2400 average. THE GRAND SEDUCTION (EOne) slipped just 3% with a $2700 average. THE IMMIGRANT (Weinstein) fell 14%, albeit with a wan $1200 average.
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