Even with a new horror movie in the market, A QUIET PLACE (Paramount) continued to over-perform, down just 46% from last Friday according to preliminary numbers at Deadline to $10.2M, putting it on track for a $35M 2nd weekend. That’s the same hold as last year’s Split, and with higher numbers, suggesting that Quiet Place could reach $170M in the US, which would make it hugely profitable on moderate costs.
The financial model for a big-budget dumb-dumb action movie like RAMPAGE (New Line/Warners) is surprisingly delicate. Production/marketing costs are at least $225M, and with so many eggs in the basket of China, where the studio retains only a small portion of box office receipts, the film needs at least a modicum of success in the US. That’s not working out for Rampage, which earned $11.1M on Friday ($2.4M from Thursday night), and will need to pull a family audience over the rest of the weekend to get past $28M. That could make it Dwayne Johnson’s lowest-opening action movie since the $29.8M for Hercules in 2014, and if like Hercules, Rampage peters out at $75M in the US, its China success may not be enough to take it to breakeven.
TRUTH OR DARE (Blumhouse/Universal) had a $8M Friday ($750K from Thursday night), and will be hoping for a $20M weekend and a $45M US total. As is the Blumhouse norm, the production budget was ultra-low, although it appeared to have a more aggressive marketing campaign (branding the “Blumhouse” name in the title) than usual, which could limit the upside.
BLOCKERS (Good Universe/Universal) didn’t get the word-of-mouth boost it was hoping for, down 57% from last Friday to $3.3M for a $11M 2nd weekend, with a $55-60M US total ahead. This one had an extensive marketing campaign that began several weeks before opening, which means it may not reach profit unless it shows some strength overseas.
The arrival of Rampage, which took over many Imax and 3d theatres, seemed to hit READY PLAYER ONE (Village Roadshow/Warners) hard, down 58% from last Friday to $2.6M for a possible $10M weekend. It seems likely to end its US run with $135M, and although it’s bigger overseas ($297.1M to date, $162.5M of it from China), that may not be enough for profit on $300M in costs.
ISLE OF DOGS (Fox Searchlight) expanded to wide release at 1939 theatres with $1.5M, headed for a modest $4.5M weekend. That’s considerably less than the $7M The Fantastic Mr Fox earned at 2033 theatres, and suggests Dogs may only get to $25M in the US.
BLACK PANTHER (Marvel/Disney) is nearing the end of its run, but it’s still a steady performer, down 39% on its 9th Friday to $1.4M for a $5M weekend, on its way to $685M in the US.
After 4 consecutive weeks of steady expansion, I CAN ONLY IMAGINE (Roadside) shed 11% of its theatres, and dropped 47% from last Friday to $1.1M for a $4M weekend. That still has it on track for $80-85M in the US, putting it just behind Heaven Is For Real‘s $91.4M in the Christian niche.
ACRIMONY (Lionsgate) sank by another 55% on its 3rd Friday to $1.1M for a $4M weekend and a $45M US total, in the lower quadrant of Tyler Perry’s films.
CHAPPAQUIDDICK (Entertainment Services) fell 48% on its 2nd Friday to $1M, and a $3.5M weekend means it’s unlikely to hit $20M in the US.
THE MIRACLE SEASON (LD) had no traction, down 55% to $600K on its 2nd Friday for a $2M weekend and a US total that won’t get much past $10M.
BEIRUT (Bleecker Street) opened in a semi-wide 710 theatres on Friday and roused little interest with under $400K in its first 2 days of release. It may reach $1.5M for the weekend.
SGT STUBBY: AN AMERICAN TALE (Fun Academy) was essentially invisible with $200K on Friday and a weekend that may not see $1M.
The only notable limited release of the weekend was THE RIDER (Sony Classics), which got enthusiastic reviews but is off to a quiet start with a $12K per-theatre weekend average at 3 NY/LA arthouses.
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