ANT-MAN & THE WASP (Marvel/Disney) will be Marvel’s lowest-grossing 2018 release, but it was designed to have relatively minor stakes, and while it’s not in a league with Black Panther or Avengers: Infinity War, on its own terms it’s performing impressively. According to preliminary numbers at Deadline, opening day was $34M (including $11.5M from Thursday night), a 50% increase from the first Ant-Man, and better than the $32.6M first day of Doctor Strange. If Wasp has the same 2.53x weekend multiple as Ant-Man, it will have $86M by Sunday, and could reach $225M or so in the US.
THE FIRST PURGE (Blumhouse/Perfect World/Universal) was the first in its franchise to open on a Wednesday, so comparisons aren’t apples to apples, but with a $5.8M Friday added to $13.9M from Wed-Thurs, it may get to $31M over 5 days, while the others in the franchise have earned $29.8M-$34.1M in just 3 days each. That suggests that First Purge will peter out at about $65M in the US, profitable given its low costs, but below the $72-79M of the last two installments.
Note that due to the quasi-holiday status of this week’s Friday, weekend multiples for holdovers may be lower than usual. INCREDIBLES 2 (Pixar/Disney) is demonstrating terrific legs, down just 31% from last Friday to $9.3M for a $30M weekend, and by Sunday it will have topped $500M in the US, becoming the most successful animated US release in history, with plenty of gas left in the tank.
JURASSIC PARK: FALLEN KINGDOM (Legendary/Perfect World/Universal) dropped 49% from last Friday to $8.9M, and a $27M weekend would leave it stretching to reach $400M in the US before it’s done, down 39% from the first Jurassic World.
SICARIO: DAY OF THE SOLDADO (Black Label/Columbia/Sony) plunged 69% on its 2nd Friday to $2.3M, and with a $7M weekend, it’s not going to get much higher than the $46.9M US total of the first Sicario, despite increased production and marketing costs. Unless the film shows a great deal of international strength, it’s hard to see how the franchise can continue at these numbers.
UNCLE DREW (Lionsgate) was hoping to find a family audience, but it was completely outflanked by Disney, and it fell 64% on its 2nd Friday to $2.2M. With a $14M weekend, it’s on its way to a $45M US total, with uncertain international prospects.
OCEAN’S EIGHT (Village Roadshow/Warners) is the only female-skewing title in the market, and it dipped just 28% on its 5th Friday to $1.7M, with a $5M weekend ahead that has it on track for $135M+ in the US, which would put it behind only Eleven in the franchise.
WON’T YOU BE MY NEIGHBOR (Focus/Universal) expanded again, this time by 239 theatres to 893, where it had a $750K Friday, and with a $2.5M weekend, it will pass RBG as 2018’s top documentary. If it keeps widening, it could get as high as $20M in the US.
3 IDENTICAL STRANGERS (Neon) was another expanding documentary, now at 51 theatres for a solid potential $12K per-theatre weekend average. SORRY TO BOTHER YOU (Annapurna) is having a bright opening at 16 theatres, with a possible weekend average over $40K. Annapurna has been accused of over-aggressiveness in its rapid expansions of Detroit and Brad’s Status and wide opening of Professor Marston & The Wonder Women, all of which burned out quickly, so we’ll see if it moves more gradually with Sorry.
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