JASON BOURNE (Universal) is performing in line with expectations. Preliminary numbers at Deadline have its opening day at $22M (including $4.3M from Thursday night), down just 10% from the $24.7M start (with no Thursday screenings) for 2007’s Bourne Ultimatum, the last Matt Damon/Paul Greenglass title in the franchise. Great word of mouth gave Ultimatum a Saturday bump, but Jason Bourne may not fare quite as well. It should still have a $58M+ weekend, which would be ahead of all the other Bourne chapters except Ultimatum‘s $69.3M. The one obstacle in Jason Bourne‘s path is next week’s expected big opening for Suicide Squad, which will appeal to an overlapping audience. The Bourne film should end up at $150-175M in the US, and if it has the same international appeal as 2012’s franchise off-shoot Bourne Legacy, that could mean $400M worldwide, a good profit on moderate $250M production/marketing costs.
BAD MOMS (H Brothers/Tang/STX) had a $9.6M Friday (including $2M from Thursday night), which should bring it to $27M by Sunday. It’s a bit lower than the $10.7M opening day for Trainwreck, but very comparable to the $9.9M start for Horrible Bosses, another R-rated wish-fulfillment comedy. Bad Moms was produced on a low budget and had a mid-level marketing campaign, so there should be some profit ahead, particularly since its only real competition in the next several weeks is the Seth Rogen animated comedy Sausage Party.
NERVE (Lionsgate) started its run on Wednesday, and accumulated $6M in its first two days. Friday added $3.1M, which suggests that it may not get out of single digits for the 3-day weekend. That’s not much, but Nerve has low costs, so it still might eke out a profit, especially if there’s some foreign appeal.
STAR TREK BEYOND (Skydance/Alibaba/Huahua/Paramount) is officially in trouble, down an ugly 70% from last Friday to $6.6M. That’s a much worse Friday-to-Friday drop than the 56% for the Star Trek reboot, or the 54% for Into Darkness. Beyond may only reach $23M for the weekend, and is on track for $150M in the US, down more than 30% from Into Darkness. The studio can hope for help overseas, but with $350M in production/marketing costs, recoupment will be far from warp speed.
ICE AGE: COLLISION COURSE (Blue Sky/20th) is holding a bit better, down 58% from last Friday to $3.3M. Nevertheless, its opening numbers were so low that this will only give it a $11-12M weekend and probably an awful eventual $65M US total. This franchise is heavily tilted toward overseas, but Collision Course is likely to be much less profitable than other installments.
THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS (Illumination/Universal) continues to be the animated title of choice, down 35% from last Friday to $5.6M, with a $20M weekend ahead that will put it on the edge of $300M in the US, and with a clear weekend before Pete’s Dragon arrives.
Things got no brighter for GHOSTBUSTERS (Village Roadshow/Columbia/Sony), down 56% from last Friday to $2.7M. With a $9M weekend in store, it’s headed for a $125M US total and will require huge overseas success to avoid red ink on $300M in costs.
LIGHTS OUT (New Line/Warners) held slightly better than a typical low-budget horror entry, down 60% Friday-to-Friday to $3.6M, and with a $11M weekend ahead. It should earn $60M in the US, enough for the studio to commission a sequel.
CAFE SOCIETY (Amazon/Lionsgate) expanded to a barely-wide 565 theatres, and may have a $2M weekend, for a per-theatre average a bit below $4000. None of Woody Allen’s recent films have had quite the same release pattern, but the average is similar to the number for To Rome With Love when it was at 806 theatres, suggesting that it will end up in the $10-15M range in the US.
INDIGNATION (Roadside) opened at 4 NY/LA arthouses and should average a comfortable if unexciting $20K for the weekend.
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