The gamble of CRAZY RICH ASIANS (Color Force/SK Global/Warners) is paying off with solid returns. The film opened on Wednesday and earned $8.8M in its first two days, and preliminary numbers at Deadline have its Friday at $7M. That should give it a $21M 3-day weekend and around $30M since opening day. A $70M US total would give it fair base for profit on roughly $100M in production/marketing costs, with presumed strength in Asian markets abroad. By comparison, the year’s earlier attempt at a big-studio breakthrough rom-com, the gay teen dramedy Love, Simon, only managed $14M in its opening 5 days and a $40.8M US total.
Considering its schlock nature, the 65% Friday-to-Friday drop to $5.9M for THE MEG (Gravity/Warners) wasn’t so bad, less steep than the 70% drop on the 2nd Friday of Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, and roughly the same as the 66% for Skyscraper. The weekend should hit $20M, with a possible US total of $120M ahead, although costs were so high that the profit picture is still cloudy.
MILE 22 (Hideaway/H Brothers/STX) is headed for one of Mark Wahlberg’s worst action movie openings, depending on how one classifies his Patriots Day. Mile 22 had a $5.4M Friday that should bring it to a $14M weekend, better than the $11.6M wide opening for Patriots Day, but otherwise his lowest opening in the genre since Broken City‘s $8.3M in 2013, and before that, the $10.8M start for We Own the Night in 2007. Mile 22 carries over $100M in production/marketing costs, so its only chance at breakeven is strong appeal overseas.
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FALLOUT (Skydance/Alibaba/Paramount) dropped 42% on its 4th Friday to $3M, steeper than the 32% drop for Rogue Nation on its parallel day. Fallout should have an $11M weekend, still on track to slide past $200M in the US.
CHRISTOPHER ROBIN (Disney) has found its groove, down just 26% on its 3rd Friday to $2.7M, for a weekend that could hit $11M. That suggests it may pull past Pete’s Dragon and reach $85M in the US.
ALPHA (Studio 8/Columbia/Sony) proved to be a tough sell, with a Friday at $3.3M, and a weekend that may not get past $9M. Barring huge success overseas, it has no chance of recouping its $100M+ in costs.
BLACKKKLANSMAN (Focus/Universal) increased its theatre count by 18%, which helped moderate its Friday-to-Friday drop to 44%, bringing the day to $2M, with a $7M weekend ahead. It could reach $40M in the US, which would place it as #3 in Spike Lee’s career (not adjusted for inflation), behind only Inside Man and Malcolm X.
SLENDER MAN (Screen Gems/Sony) fell the expected low-budget horror 71% from last Friday to $1.4M, for a likely $4M weekend, as it struggles toward $30M in the US.
The long-running holdovers continued their steady performance. MAMMA MIA: HERE WE GO AGAIN (Legendary/Universal) dropped 37% on its 5th Friday to $1M, for a $3.5M weekend as it heads to $120M in the US. HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 3: SUMMER VACATION (Sony Animation/Sony/Columbia) slipped 32% on its 6th Friday to $1M for a $3.5M weekend that will put it closer to $160M in the US.
New arthouse releases are en route to fair but not standout returns. THE WIFE (Sony Classics) should average $28K for the weekend at 4 theatres, WE THE ANIMALS (Orchard) may average $22K at 3. JULIET, NAKED (Roadside) could average $14K at 4.
About the Author
