THE HITMAN’S BODYGUARD (Summit/Lionsgate) is off to a mild late-August start, but it will be enough to win the quiet weekend. Preliminary numbers at Deadline have opening day at $8.1M (including $1.7M from Thursday night), which should mean a $20M weekend. While that might not even land it in the top 50 August openings, it should put the project on a road to profitability against $90M in production/worldwide marketing costs, especially since the action-adventure should be attractive to international audiences.
With LOGAN LUCKY (Fingerprint/Bleecker Street), Steven Soderbergh is out to prove that he can distribute (through a studio-for-hire) and market his own film in a more intelligent and budget-conscious way than the major studios do, but early results aren’t backing him up. Logan only managed $2.7M on Friday (including $500K from Thursday night), and unless Saturday audiences give it a sizable bump, it’s headed for a $7M weekend. Even with costs kept down to $50M (which doesn’t include international marketing), there’s a long road ahead before anyone can hope for profit. Reportedly Soderbergh earned enough from pre-sales of international rights to foreign distributors and SVOD rights to Amazon that he won’t be out of pocket, but if Logan doesn’t deliver, it will be a lot harder for him (or any other independent filmmakers, for that matter) to duplicate the scheme on other indie productions.
WIND RIVER (Weinstein) expanded to barely-wide release at 694 theatres with an OK $1M on Friday, which should get it close to $3M for the weekend. That translates into a $4300 weekend per-theatre average, vs $5900 for Hitman’s Bodyguard, which is in nearly 5x as many theatres.
ANNABELLE: CREATION (New Line/Warners) dropped 69% from last Friday to $4.7M, a bit worse than the 66% 2d Friday drop for the first Annabelle, and should have a $14M weekend. Creation has been benefiting from its summer release with better midweek numbers than Annabelle (which opened in October), so the two films are running just about even, which would put Creation on track for a tidy $85M in the US.
THE NUT JOB 2: NUTTY BY NATURE (Open Road) and THE EMOJI MOVIE (Columbia/Sony) are splitting the family audience. Nutty fell 45% on its 2d Friday to $1.7M for a $6M weekend, on its way to $30M in the US (down more than 50% from its predecessor). Emoji dropped 26% on its 4th Friday to $1.4M for a $5M weekend, and should end up at $80M in the US, a tad ahead of Captain Underpants.
THE GLASS CASTLE (Lionsgate) didn’t demonstrate the word of mouth necessary for a film hoping to expand beyond its 1461-theatre start, down 50% from last Friday to $800K, with a $2.5M weekend ahead.
DUNKIRK (Warners) was once again king of the long-running titles, down 35% on its 5th Friday to $2M for a $7M weekend. It should top $180M in the US before it’s done. GIRLS TRIP (Perfect World/Universal) was off by 40% on its 5th Friday to $1.2M, for a $3.5M weekend as it heads to $110M in the US. On its 7th Friday, SPIDER-MAN: HOMECOMING (Marvel/Columbia/Sony) slipped 30% to $1.2M, and should have a $4M weekend as it nears a $325M finish line in the US. Even as tracking reports are predicting a huge opening for next month’s adaptation of Stephen King’s It, THE DARK TOWER (MRC/Columbia/Sony) is heading to oblivion, down 56% on its 3rd Friday to $1M, for a $3.5M weekend as it stumbles toward a US total that might not reach $50M.
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