After a string of disappointments at the box office, this weekend’s franchise centerpiece looks like it will deliver. Preliminary numbers at Deadline have the opening day for HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON: THE HIDDEN WORLD (DreamWorks Animation/Universal) at $17.3M (including $3M from Thursday night and $2.5M from earlier paid previews), better than the $12.1M for the original Dragon, and just behind the $18.4M for Dragon 2. The question now will be whether Hidden World‘s weekend will play out like the first Dragon, which had a 3.6x weekend multiple of its opening day (that would mean $62M here), or more like the 2.7x multiple of Dragon 2 (which would translate to $47M). Sequels are typically frontloaded, but Dragon 2 opened in June, which has stronger Fridays for family movies because some schools are out, so we’ll see how Saturday goes.
Last week’s would -be franchise, ALITA: BATTLE ANGEL (20th) fell 58% from last Friday to $3.1M, although it had actually opened a day earlier due to Valentine’s Day and the drop from that day to this Friday was 64%. It should have a dim $11M weekend, with a likely $80M US total, and will require tremendous sustained success overseas (mostly meaning China) just to break even.
THE LEGO MOVIE 2: THE SECOND PART (Warners Animation) dropped 51% on its 3rd Friday to $2.1M, for a weekend around $8M, and it will stretch to reach $100M in the US, a sad way from the first Lego‘s $257.8M.
FIGHTING WITH MY FAMILY (Annapurna/MGM) expanded from last week’s 4-theatre release to 2711, with a soft $2.6M on Friday that should bring it to $7M for the weekend. It wasn’t an expensive production, so it will have to hope for strong word of mouth to keep it in circulation for a while.
ISN’T IT ROMANTIC (BRON/New Line/Warners) was down 45% compared to last Friday at $2.2M, but as with last week’s other openings, Friday wasn’t its first day. It should have a $7.5M weekend, and will hope to reach $50M in the US.
WHAT MEN WANT (Paramount) had a 54% Friday-to-Friday drop to $1.3M, for a $4.5M weekend, as it heads to $55M in the US.
HAPPY DEATH DAY 2 U (Blumhouse/Universal) fell 49% to $1.4M compared to last Friday, which was its 3rd day of release. It’s heading for a $5M weekend, and might get past $30M in the US, far from the first Death Day‘s $55.7M.
THE UPSIDE (Lantern/STX) is still enjoying great word of mouth, down 32% from last Friday to $900K, for a $3M weekend, and a US total that should near or hit $100M this weekend.
COLD PURSUIT (Studiocanal/Summit/Lionsgate) dropped 42% from last Friday to $900K, for a $3M weekend and a US total in the $30-35M range, slightly below The Commuter‘s $36.3M.
The Christian-aimed RUN THE RACE (Roadside) opened at 853 theatres with a $750K opening day, and should see a slim $2M for the weekend.
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