As the 2018 box office enters the Martin Luther King holiday weekend, most of its strength still lies in 2017 releases. According to preliminary numbers at Deadline, JUMANJI: WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE (Columbia/Sony) is on track to win its 4th weekend of release. Friday’s $6M take was down 44% from last week, and with a stronger than usual Sunday due to the holiday, the weekend should be $24M ($30M with Monday). Jumanji faces very limited competition over the next several weeks, and it should reach $325M+ in the US, with a real chance of supplanting Spider-Man: Homecoming and its $334.2M to become the #5 film released in 2017.
THE POST (DreamWorks/Reliance/Participant/20th) expanded into wide release at 2819 theatres with $6.1M on Friday, better than the $5.4M opening day for Spielberg’s Bridge of Spies, which ultimately earned $72.3M in the US. The Post should reach $18M by Sunday and $21-22M with Monday, and much of its fate will depend on whether it receives more affection from Oscar voters than it’s so far gotten from other awards groups.
It’s a reliable fact that when studios start spreading the word about their limited investment in a film, the box office will be limp, and that’s the case with THE COMMUTER (Studiocanal/Lionsgate), which is following Liam Neeson’s recent string of non-Taken action disappointments with $4.3M on Friday, just 10% above the $3.9M for Run All Night, which only reached $26.5M in the US (plus a still-dim $45.2M overseas). Commuter may get to $12M by Sunday and $14-15M with Monday. Even if Lionsgate is only footing the bill for marketing costs, money will still be lost at that rate.
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI (Lucasfilm/Disney) fell 56% from last Friday to $2.9M, for an $11M weekend, $14-15M with Monday. It should end up around $620M in the US, down 34% from The Force Awakens, and #5 or #6 all-time at the US box office, depending on whether it can pass The Avengers and its $623.4M.
PADDINGTON 2 (Studiocanal/Warners) was acquired from Weinstein Company in its fire sale of properties, and reportedly the acquisition and marketing costs for Warners will be $75M+ (for US release only). It’s off to a very soft start with $2.6M on Friday, 45% below the opening day for the first Paddington, which was also on MLK weekend. The holiday will give it a healthy weekend multiple, but $10-11M by Sunday and $14M with Monday still puts it on track for a money-losing $40-45M in the US. Luckily for the producers, it’s been much more robust overseas, with $125.2M to date.
THE GREATEST SHOWMAN (20th) continues its crowd-pleasing ways, down just 25% from last Friday to $3.1M. With $11M by Sunday and $14M with Monday, it could hit $125M in the US, still some distance from profit, but a much more feisty contender than it had seemed.
INSIDIOUS: THE LAST KEY (Blumhouse/Universal) behaved in the way of most low-budget horror, plunging 75% from last Friday to $3.1M, on its way to a $10M 3-day weekend and $12M with Monday. (Last year’s Split, a rare horror movie with legs, dropped just 46% on its 2nd Friday, and Get Out was down only 26%.) A $70M US total would nevertheless be up significantly from the $52.2M for the last Insidious.
PROUD MARY (Screen Gems/Sony) napped into release with $3.3M on Friday, on its way to $10M by Sunday and $12M with Monday. It’s unlikely to get much higher than $30M in the US.
PITCH PERFECT 3 (Gold Circle/Perfect World/Universal) continued on its way down, with a 56% decline from last Friday to $1.4M for $5M by Sunday and $6.5M with Monday. If it reaches $105M in the US, that will be a 43% drop from Pitch Perfect 2.
DARKEST HOUR (Focus/Universal) benefited from Gary Oldman’s awards wins last week, down only 27% from last Friday to $1.3M. It’s headed for $5M by Sunday and $6M with Monday, and it’s poised to pass The Big Sick‘s $42.9M in the next week or two to become 2017’s highest-grossing indie (for the moment, anyway).
MOLLY’S GAME (H Brothers/STX) had a mediocre hold, down 52% from last Friday to $1.1M for $3.5M by Sunday and $4.5M with Monday, another film hoping for awards help.
I, TONYA (Neon) expanded to the low end of wide release at 517 theatres, and it might have a $6K per-theatre average for the 3-day weekend, a bit below the $7200 3 Billboards averaged at 614.
Thinking of which, 3 BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI (Fox Searchlight) attempted to capitalize on its Golden Globe wins by jumping back to over 1000 theatres, where it should average a mild $2200 over the 3-day weekend.
THE SHAPE OF WATER (Fox Searchlight) also won some awards this week, and at 723 theatres it should average $3200 over the 3-day weekend.
PHANTOM THREAD (Focus/Universal) had its first significant expansion, to 62 theatres. It’s headed for a $15K Fri-Sun per-theatre average, just about the same as Darkest Hour averaged at 53.
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