MISS BALA (Columbia/Sony) is the only new opening this Super Bowl weekend, but it’s failing to take advantage of its status. Deadline‘s preliminary numbers have Miss Bala‘s opening day at $2.7M ($650K of that from Thursday night), and with Sunday’s box office due to crash for everyone, it may not reach $7M for the weekend. Miss Bala was relatively inexpensive to produce and had limited marketing, but it will need a strong showing overseas–which it may find, especially in Spanish-language territories–to have any hope of finding a profit.
That leaves the way clear for GLASS (Blinding Edge/Blumhouse/Universal) and THE UPSIDE (Lantern/STX) to fight it out for the weekend win. Glass dropped 46% from last Friday to $2.7M, and should have a $8.5M weekend, on its way to $110M in the US (down about 20% from Split). The Upside is holding much better, with a Friday drop of just 19% to $2.5M, and it should also get to $8-8.5M for the weekend. It now seems like it will find its way to $90M+ in the US.
After that, a quartet of films are all looking at $1-1.2M Fridays that will lead to $4-4.5M weekends. For AQUAMAN (DC/Warners) that’s a 26% Friday-to-Friday drop that will put it on a path to $335M in the US, behind only Wonder Woman among this DC Universe’s entries. SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE (Sony Animation/Columbia/Sony) has a 18% Friday drop and with an awards-fueled second wind, should get to $185M in the US. THE KID WHO WOULD BE KING (20th) dropped 38% from last Friday, and will struggle to get past $25M in the US. GREEN BOOK (Participant/DreamWorks/Reliance/Universal) had the best Friday-to-Friday hold, dipping just 11%, and it should be at $65M by Oscar night, when it may or may not get a third wind.
A DOG’S WAY HOME (Columbia/Sony) dropped 22% from last Friday to $860K, and a $3.5M weekend will bring it in hailing distance of $40M in the US. ESCAPE ROOM (Columbia/Sony) was similarly placed, down 23% from last Friday to $830K for a $3M weekend, on the way to $55M in the US.
After several limited runs that began in 2018, THEY SHALL NOT GROW OLD (Warners) opened a regular engagement in 735 theatres with $800K on Friday for a $2.5M weekend. A $3500 per-theatre weekend average would be impressive for that number of theatres, considering that the film is a documentary composed of restored World War I footage. A $15M US total wouldn’t be far from the $22.8M earned by Won’t You Be My Neighbor, 2018’s highest-grossing documentary, and better than RBG‘s $14M.
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