Despite a trio of new arrivals, MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FALLOUT (Skydance/Alibaba/Paramount) will ride strong reviews and word of mouth to an easy second consecutive weekend crown. Preliminary numbers at Deadline have Friday at $9.8M, down 57% from last week, and better than the 60% drop for the 2nd Friday of Rogue Nation. With that trajectory likely to stabilize over the course of the weekend, the action epic is on track for a $35M weekend, and relatively weak competition throughout August could push Fallout close to $200M in the US.
CHRISTOPHER ROBIN (Disney) was treated by the studio as though the touch of critics would strike it dead, but its 67% score on Rotten Tomatoes turned out to be perfectly decent. The bigger question will be how a “family” movie mostly about middle-aged angst will play with weekend matinee audiences. It had a $9.1M Friday (including $1.5M from Thursday night), about 30% better than the August 2016 opening day of Pete’s Dragon, although the numbers are much closer if one takes into account that Pete didn’t have Thursday night performances. Robin‘s weekend may reach $24M, an OK start for one of Disney’s infrequent non-event-level productions.
THE SPY WHO DUMPED ME (Lionsgate) had a quiet opening with $4.7M on Friday (including $950K from Thursday night), below the $5.4M start for Tag, putting it in line for a $13M weekend.
The weekend’s bomb is likely to be THE DARKEST MINDS (20th), which started with a dim $2.5M ($550K from Thursday night), and may not reach $7M for the weekend. Even on relatively moderate reported production costs of $35M, that will leave it deep in red ink.
TEEN TITANS GO! TO THE MOVIES (Warner Animation/DC/Warners) took a 64% punch from last Friday’s opening to $1.5M, and even though that will moderate by Sunday, it’s still looking at a $5M weekend and a bleak US total around $30M.
Longer-running holdovers were in better shape. MAMMA MIA! HERE WE GO AGAIN (Legendary/Universal) dipped 40% on its 3rd Friday to $2.5M, and should have a $9M weekend. It’s headed for $110M in the US, down about 25% from the first Mamma Mia.
Similarly, THE EQUALIZER 2 (Escape Artists/Columbia/Sony) lost 41% on its 3rd Friday to $2.3M, for an $8M weekend, en route to a US total that should be very close to the first Equalizer‘s $101.5M.
HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 3: SUMMER VACATION (Sony Animation/Columbia/Sony) slipped 32% on its 4th Friday to $2.5M, on its way to an $8M weekend and around $155M in the US, between Hotels 1 and 2.
Both Disney franchises held well. ANT-MAN & THE WASP (Marvel/Disney) was down 30% on its 5th Friday to $1.8M, for a $6M weekend. It might reach $210M in the US, up 15% from the first Ant-Man. THE INCREDIBLES 2 (Pixar/Disney) lost a mere 28% on its 8th Friday to $1.5M for a $5M weekend, nosing closer to a potential $600M US total.
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