The box office typically dives on Thanksgiving Day when audiences (especially families) are otherwise occupied, then jumps back on Black Friday, and such was the case again this year. According to preliminary numbers at Deadline, THE HUNGER GAMES: MOCKINGJAY PART 2 (Lionsgate) was comfortably #1 for the day while continuing to run behind the others in its franchise with $20.8M on Friday. That compares to $24.2M for the first Mockingjay on the day after Thanksgiving (Catching Fire was even higher at $31.6M), and should put Mockingjay 2 at $49M for the 3-day weekend, which would give it $195M by Sunday, about 13% below Mockingjay 1 and headed for about $300M in the US. Last weekend’s numbers suggested that unlike some franchise installments, Mockingjay 2 may lag behind overseas as well as in the US, but we’ll know more about that on Sunday.
The top newcomer was THE GOOD DINOSAUR (Pixar/Disney), with $15.1M on Friday to follow $16.4M on Wed-Thurs. That’s considerably ahead of last year’s Thanksgiving Weekend animated opening Penguins of Madagascar, which had $10.4M on the day after Thanksgiving, but Penguins was a flop, and it would have been disastrous for Dinosaur not to beat it. On the other extreme, Dinosaur was nowhere near the $26.8M post-Thanksgiving of Frozen, which of course was a historic blockbuster, and was also below 2010’s Tangled at $19.5M. The closest family movie comp is 2007’s Enchanted, with $14.4M on its first Friday. That would suggest a $36M 3-day weekend, and a US total around $135M, although the Pixar factor may lift Dinosaur up a bit from that. In any case, the visually sumptuous but very young-skewing Dinosaur seems unlikely to challenge Inside Out for the year’s Pixar lead (or, lacking that film’s visual and verbal sophistication, for the Animated Film Oscar).
CREED (MGM/New Line/Warners) showed word-of-mouth strength on Thanksgiving Day when it climbed 7% while Mockingjay (-24%) and Dinosaur (-33%) were dropping, but its Friday was rather soft, up 74% while those films doubled or better. Nevertheless, Creed will be a success, since it cost much less than either of the spectacles that were its competition this weekend, and with $11.2M on Friday, it should be at $27M for the 3-day weekend ($40M since Wednesday), with a chance to strive for $100M in the US.
The weekend’s disaster was VICTOR FRANKENSTEIN (TSG/20th), not even in the day’s Top 10 with $800K on Friday. It will only earn $3M over the 5-day holiday weekend, and even if it overperforms internationally, it’s likely to lose tens of millions for its backers.
Thanks to the holiday, the market’s holdovers all look fairly good. SPECTRE (MGM/Columbia/Sony) was up $1M over last Friday to $5.2M, and should have a $13M weekend that will put it over $175M by Sunday (still far off from the $245.6M Skyfall had at that point in its run). THE PEANUTS MOVIE (Blue Sky/20th) also had a $1M Friday-to-Friday rise, to $3.9M, and despite the arrival of Dinosaur, it should have a 3-day weekend around $10M, although it’s still a tossup as to whether it can reach $150M in the US. THE NIGHT BEFORE (Columbia/Sony) should be down about 25% for the weekend to $7.5M after a $2.9M Friday, but will still struggle to reach $50M in the US. THE SECRET IN THEIR EYES (STX) is headed for a $4.5M weekend after $1.7M on Friday.
SPOTLIGHT (Open Road) expanded to 897 theatres on Wednesday, and its 3-day weekend total should increase by about 20% to $4.3M, even as its per-theatre average drops by 20% to dip below $5K. That will put it ahead of Birdman‘s $2900 average at 857, although that expansion didn’t have the advantage of a holiday weekend.
BROOKLYN (Fox Searchlight) joined Spotlight in modified wide release at 824 theatres, and was close behind it, heading for a $3.3M 3-day weekend with a $4K average.
The weekend’s prestige arrival was THE DANISH GIRL (Focus/Universal), which should deliver a typical $47K per-theatre average for such openings at 4 NY/LA arthouses (although given the holiday, that number is softer than it looks). CAROL (Weinstein) held at its initial 4 theatres, which likewise makes its weekend $49K average (down 23% from last week) less impressive than it would otherwise be. LEGEND (Cross Creek/Universal) expanded to 40 with a mild weekend average of $6K.
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