Based on grosses from Wednesday and Thanksgiving, Weekend #47 is on pace to exceed the multi-year average for this weekend by 10% — exactly on the pace we forecast earlier in the week. Breaking Dawn Part 2 is running slightly behind our forecast pace in this second weekend, but still clearly #1 for the weekend. Skyfall is exceeding our third weekend forecast, pushing newcomer Rise of the Guardians into a weak third place, just barely ahead of Lincoln and the over-performing Life of Pi. Red Dawn is on pace to do a little better than expected — but still quite irrelevant in the marketplace.
| Weekend 47: Nov 23-25, 2012 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Wed/ Thu Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Breaking Dawn Part 2 | Sum | [44.8] | 41.1 | 13.2 / 8.4 | 303 | |
| Skyfall | Sony | [28.3] | 32.7 | 7.4 / 7.7 | 306 | |
| Rise of the Guardians | Par/DW | [29.5] | 21.9 | 4.8 / 3.8 | 111 | |
| Lincoln | Dis | [17.5] | 21.1 | 4.2 / 4.9 | 122 | |
| Life of Pi | Fox | [14.5] | 20.3 | 3.7 / 4.5 | 77 | |
| Wreck-It Ralph | Dis | [15.0] | 15.4 | 3.7 / 2.5 | 192 | |
| Red Dawn | FilmDis | [12.0] | 13.6 | 4.2 / 3.3 | 37 | |
| Flight | Par | [6.6] | 6.5 | 1.3 / 1.5 | 91 | |
| Silver Linings Playbook | Weins | [—] | 3.4 | .66 / .61 | n/a | |
| Argo | WB | [3.5] | 2.5 | .58 / .61 | 109 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a decent $180 million total Friday-Sunday, which would be up 10% from the average comparable weekend the last four years and up 16% from the same weekend last year.
| ($ millions) | |||
| WEEKEND #47 | Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | |
| 2012 | $180 | Rise of the Guardians $22, Life of Pi $20, Red Dawn $14 | |
| 2011 | $155 | Muppets $29, Arthur Christmas $12, Hugo $11 | |
| 2010 | $171 | Tangled $49, Burlesque $12, Love Other Drugs $10 | |
| 2009 | $175 | Old Dogs $17, Ninja Assassin $13 | |
| 2008 | $155 | Four Christmases $31, Australia $15, Transporter 3 $12 | |
| Avg 2008-11 | $164 | ||
Check back tomorrow morning for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses based on actual Friday grosses.
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