It’s not going to be close, and it doesn’t deserve to be. Based on preliminary numbers at Deadline and elsewhere, the much-better-than-you’d-expect NEIGHBORS (Universal) trounced THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN 2 (Sony) on Friday, $18M to $10M, and although Spider-Man will recoup some of that with stronger Saturday and Sunday matinees, Neighbors should hold on with around a $45M weekend. That would make it by far the biggest live-action opening of Seth Rogen’s career (more than double the $20.7M weekend for This Is the End, although that opened on a Wednesday), and in the world of R-rated comedies, that puts it around the start of the original The Hangover, well above the $36.3M weekend for 21 Jump Street, and only 10-20% behind Ted. As one of the more modestly-budgeted summer movies, Neighbors could become one of the most profitable, especially if it has some international appeal.
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 wanted a strong hold to make up for its slightly soft opening, but it was merely average for a superhero franchise, its $10M Friday down about 72% from its opening last week. That compares to a 68% drop for Captain America 2, 71% for Iron Man 3, and 52% for Thor 2. (Comparisons to the first Amazing Spider-Man don’t work because that opened on a Tuesday.) Amazing 2 will likely have a $35-37M 2d weekend, and is now running around 10% behind Captain America 2 (which made $41.3M in its 2d weekend), suggesting that it’s going to end up with $225M at the US box-office, which would be 15% behind the first Amazing, a disappointment for a franchise chapter that was supposed to make a leap upward this time around.
Those were the only two movies making any real money on Friday. THE OTHER WOMAN (20th) held well, down just about 37% Friday-to-Friday to around $2.8M, and it should have a strong Mother’s Day, giving it $9-10M for the weekend as it heads to $80M in the US. HEAVEN IS FOR REAL (TriStar/Sony), RIO 2 (20th/Blue Sky) and CAPTAIN AMERICA: THE WINTER SOLDIER (Disney/Marvel) should all have $5-6M weekends, dropping a small 25-30% from last week.
The weekend’s other openings are going nowhere. LEGENDS OF OZ: DOROTHY’S RETURN (Clarion) had a Friday under $1M, with a $4M weekend ahead, and the dismally reviewed inspirational comedy MOM’S NIGHT OUT (TriStar/Sony), at only 1044 theatres, is also headed for a $4M weekend.
In limited release, Jon Favreau’s CHEF (Open Road) may end up with a strong $30K+ weekend average at 6 NY/LA theatres, but that number would be heavily boosted by an aggressive series of celebrity Q&As at the evening shows, so it may not mean much in terms of gauging the film’s real appeal.
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