For the fourth consecutive weekend, an animated movie will lead the box office, as Finding Dory‘s mantle is taken by THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS (Illumination/Universal). With a $38M Friday (including $5.3M from Thursday night) reported in preliminary numbers at Deadline, Pets is on track for a $95M weekend, which would make it the biggest non-sequel animated opening ever. The Illumination unit is relatively thrifty as A-list animation houses go, and the total worldwide costs for Pets are around $200M, which will make it hugely profitable. (A piece of above and beyond self-promotion that’s worth noting is that a major sequence in Pets features a poster for Illumination’s upcoming holiday movie Sing, kicking off that marketing campaign with no extra expense.) Pets will face competition in 2 weeks from the next Ice Age installment, but that franchise is much stronger overseas than in the US (the last US opening was a merely OK $41.7M), so it may not have much effect.
The weekend’s other wide opening is the R-rated comedy MIKE & DAVE NEED WEDDING DATES (TSG/20th), and with no major comedy stars on the marquee, that one is proving a tough sell. A $6.1M Friday (including $1.6M from Thursday night) probably means an unimpressive $15M weekend (the somewhat similar Forgetting Sarah Marshall opened to $17.7M in 2008, without benefit of a summer run), and if it has a full overseas release, worldwide costs could exceed $100M, which means a $50M US total may still make for a tough road to breakeven.
The arrival of Pets dented FINDING DORY (Pixar/Disney), which took a 54% Friday-to-Friday hit to $6.1M, for a probable $20M weekend. Even so, Dory‘s $408M total as of Friday makes it 2016’s #1 release to date, topping Captain America: Civil War‘s $405.9M. Dory should still have enough firepower to move past Shrek 2‘s $441.2M total from 2004 to become the highest-grossing animated film in US history.
THE LEGEND OF TARZAN (Village Roadshow/RatPac/Warners) isn’t showing the kind of hold it would need to recoup its huge costs. It fell 58% from last Friday to $5.9M, and after a $19M weekend, its trajectory won’t even put it on track for $125M in the US.
THE PURGE: ELECTION YEAR (Blumhouse/Universal) is a franchise that burns out quickly, and with a 73% drop from last Friday to $4M, it will probably fall more than 60% for the weekend to $12M, with $58M so far. That still may allow it to pull in front of Purge: Anarchy, which earned a US total of $72M.
THE BFG (Reliance/Disney) showed none of the support one might have looked for in a film aimed at older-skewing audiences and families It fell 67% from last Friday to $2.3M, with a $7.5M weekend ahead and a US total that may not get much past $50M. It would take an overseas miracle for this one not to incur a 9-figure loss.
Despite the arrival of Mike & Dave, CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE (New Line/RatPac/Universal/Warners) held extremely well, down just 36% from last Friday to $2.4M, with a $8M weekend ahead It might land at $125M in the US before it’s done.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: RESURGENCE (20th) is on track for little more than $100M in the US after a $7M weekend, disastrous considering the high costs. The much cheaper THE SHALLOWS (Columbia/Sony) should manage more than $50M in the US after a $5M weekend.
CAPTAIN FANTASTIC (Broad Street) opened in 4 arthouses and is looking to an OK $20K weekend per-theatre average, boosted in part by in-theatre Q&A sessions. OUR LITTLE SISTER (Sony Classics) is starting more quietly, and may average $8K for the weekend in 3 theatres.
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