SHAZAM (DC/New Line/Warners) is going to win a bleak weekend at the box office, and even it doesn’t have much to boast about. Preliminary numbers at Deadline have it dropping 68% from last Friday to $6.6M, worse than the Friday-to-Friday drops for Wonder Woman (-59%) and Justice League (-57%). A $23M weekend would put it on track for a $140M US total, and its moderate profitability will only be thanks to its relatively mid-sized budget for a superhero spectacle.
LITTLE (Legendary/Universal) led the newcomers with a soft $5.1M Friday (including around $700K from Thursday night), less than the $6.6M start for What Men Want. It seems to be heading for a $14M weekend, although weekend matinees may boost that number (even though it’s not really a family movie). It may be heading for a $40M US total, with limited prospects overseas, which may make profitability a dicey proposition, even with a modest production budget.
That’s still far better than the picture for HELLBOY (Millenium/Summit/Lionsgate), a considerably more expensive piece of work that only mustered $4.9M on Friday ($1.4M from Thursday night). Word of mouth is likely to be unhelpful, leading to a $12M weekend and a US total that may not get past $35M. Hellboy will need considerable overperformance internationally to reach breakeven, but even that won’t help Summit/Lionsgate, which only has US rights.
PET SEMATARY (Paramount) had a horror movie’s typical 72% Friday-to-Friday plunge, with a $2.8M day that may give it $9M for the weekend. A $60M US total would barely be more than the $57.5M earned by the original Pet Sematary in 1989 dollars.
The trajectory for DUMBO (Disney) remained bumpy, down 56% from last Friday to $2.2M, with an $8M weekend ahead. It now seems unlikely to get much past $100M in the US, and even if it doubles that number overseas, it may not rise above red ink.
The YA romance AFTER (Aviron) had low production/marketing costs, but with a $3M opening day and $7.5M weekend, a $20M US total may not be enough to bail it out.
CAPTAIN MARVEL (Marvel/Disney) was Friday’s sole bright spot, down 41% to $2M on its 6th Friday (the same hold Black Panther had on the parallel day of its run).
US (Blumhouse/Perfect World/Universal) continued to drop at a much faster rate than Get Out, down 57% to $1.9M on its 4th Friday, where Get Out was down 37% on the parallel day. It now seems possible that despite an opening weekend more than 2x Get Out‘s, Us may not equal the earlier film’s $176M US total.
MISSING LINK (Laika/Annapurna/United Artists/MGM) had a disastrous debut at $1.7M, less than half of Laika’s previous opening day low with 4.1M for Kubo and The Two Strings. Its opening weekend may not even reach $6M, for a US total around $25M.
BEST OF ENEMIES (STX) could only hope for strong word of mouth after last week’s soggy opening, but it didn’t materialize with a 67% Friday-to-Friday drop to $500K. A $2M weekend would mean even a $15M US total would likely be out of reach.
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