With Melissa McCarthy as solo lead, SPY (20th) isn’t opening at quite the level as The Heat, which featured a McCarthy/Sandra Bullock combo, as preliminary numbers at Deadline show a $10.6M opening day (including $1.5M from Thursday) compared to Heat‘s $13.7M. Still, that puts Spy in line to win the weekend with around $32M (it’s at about the same level as the $11.1M opening day for Identity Thief, which had a $34.1M weekend and made it to $134.5M in the US), and since its action-movie trappings may give it more overseas oomph than US comedies typically enjoy (Identity Thief made only $39.5M internationally), the mid-priced comedy (about $175M with worldwide marketing included) could be the start of a profitable franchise for McCarthy and the studio.
INSIDIOUS CHAPTER 3 (Focus/Universal) reflects a franchise running out of gas, as its $10M opening day (including $1.6M from Thursday) is far below the $20.2M start for Chapter Two. The prequel, which only includes some members of the original cast, is headed for an opening weekend at $20M or so, although since it hails from the Blumhouse Factory of Cheap Horror, that will be enough to keep it in profit.
The fans showed up for opening day of ENTOURAGE (RatPac Dune/Warners), propelling it to $5.4M last Wednesday (much of it from Tuesday night), but no one beyond the die-hards are interested. Friday brought in $3.6M, and it may not get much past $10M for the 3-day weekend (plus $7M for Wed-Thurs), and since its international appeal is shaky, it may not even get past breakeven on its moderate budget ($150M with worldwide marketing).
SAN ANDREAS (RatPac Dune/Warners) fell 56% on a Friday-to-Friday basis to $7.9M, and should have an OK $26M for the weekend. It will probably end up around $150M in the US, somewhat below the $200.7M for last year’s Godzilla and the $166.1M for 2012 despite Dwayne Johnson’s star presence, and its most important number this weekend will be the one for its China opening.
ALOHA (20th/Regency/Columbia/Sony) will not be one of those Cameron Crowe movies that has an extended run. Word of mouth was not its friend, and it plunged 63% from last Friday to $1.6M, a terrible result for an older-skewing rom-com. It may not hit $4M for the weekend or a $30M US total, a complete write-off.
With the exception of POLTERGEIST (MGM/20th) and its Insidious-fueled 70% plummet to a $800K Friday and $2.4M weekend, the longer-running titles are all holding well. PITCH PERFECT 2 (Gold Circle/Universal), TOMORROWLAND (Disney) and MAD MAX: FURY ROAD (Village Roadshow/Warners) should all fall around 40% from last Friday and weekend to roughly $2.5M/$8.5M, although that leaves them respectively as a huge hit, a major flop and a title hoping to escape red ink. AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON (Marvel/Disney) held even better, down just 35% from last weekend to $7.5M after a $2M Friday, as it nudges closer to a $450M US total.
LOVE AND MERCY (Lionsgate/Roadside) had a near-wide opening at 483 theatres and is on the way to a fair $4000 per theatre average for the weekend and a $2M total. At just 4 NY/LA arthouses, TESTAMENT OF YOUTH (Sony Classics) may have a so-so $12K weekend average.
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