Seth MacFarlane’s moment, it seems, has passed. The three years that followed the triumphant opening of the original Ted included his missteps as Oscars host and as live action star of A Million Ways to Die In the West, and it seems to have taken its toll on TED 2 (MRC/Universal), which according to preliminary numbers at Deadline was underperforming quite badly, down 40% from the opening day of Ted with $12.5M (including $2.6M from Thursday night) compared to $20.6M. The weekend will probably be down at least the same 40%, giving Ted 2 around $31-32M. That’s by no means a flop, even though the sequel cost substantially more than the first movie, with around $200M in production/marketing costs–the original Ted was extremely popular overseas (it made 60% of its worldwide total outside the US), and that could hold true here as well. But Ted as a franchise may be done, and MacFarlane’s blank check may be tougher to cash next time around.
Meanwhile, the weekend’s winner may well be undetermined until final numbers come in on Monday with JURASSIC WORLD (Legendary/Universal) and INSIDE OUT (Pixar/Disney) more or less tied at $14.5M on Friday. Inside Out probably has the edge, because Jurassic‘s Sunday won’t come close to last week’s Fathers Day, when it dropped just 2% from Saturday, and Inside Out should have a better Saturday bump with the family matinee audience. In any case, both titles should have weekends in the neighborhood of $50M. For Jurassic, that will make it the #1 film of 2015 in the US, surpassing Avengers: Age of Ultron, and put $500M within reach faster than any other film in history. Inside Out may notch a 10-day total of $180M, behind only Toy Story 3 in Pixar’s string of hits.
MAX (MGM/Warners) is the weekend’s other wide opening, and it’s a release for hire on Warners’ part, with a low production budget and marketing expenses far below the studio’s norm. It had a $4M Friday and should hit $11-12M for the weekend, in line with modest expectations.
The other holdovers were way behind the leaders. SPY (20th) wasn’t hurt at all by the arrival of fellow R-rated comedy Ted 2, down just 31% from last Friday to $2.2M and heading for a $7M weekend that has it on track for $100M in the US. SAN ANDREAS (Rat Pac Dune/Village Roadshow/New Line/Warners) is also standing firm, down 34% from last Friday to $1.5M and on its way to a $5M weekend and $150M in the US.
DOPE (Open Road) didn’t show much in the way of legs, down 64% from last Friday to $850K, with perhaps a $2.5M weekend in store that won’t justify the price paid to acquire it at Sundance.
It’s been a quiet year for limited releases, and that continues this weekend with a potential $7K per-theatre weekend average in 4 theatres for BATKID BEGINS (Warners) and a $2K weekend average for A LITTLE CHAOS (Focus World) at 83 (the latter is also available on VOD).
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