After last weekend’s misfired The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, THE GRINCH (Illumination/Universal) is kicking off the family holiday movie season in a bigger way. Early numbers at Deadline have opening day at $18.3M (including $2.2M from Thursday night), which should mean a $64M weekend, plus more on Monday, since many schools are closed for Veterans Day. That would be almost 20% more than the unadjusted 3-day start for 2000’s How The Grinch Stole Christmas, which opened in mid-November and legged it through the holidays for a $260M US total (although since that was a different era for international releases, only $85.1M overseas). It remains to be seen whether this Grinch can show that kind of staying power–Madagascar 2 opened at $63M in early November 2008 and reached a more sedate $180M (plus a far bigger $423.9M overseas), but with around $175M in production/marketing costs, there should certainly be significant profits here.
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY (Regency/20th) had a solid hold, down 53% from last Friday to $8.8M. That’s a bit steeper than the 46% Friday-to-Friday drop for the 2nd weekend of A Star Is Born, and should mean a $30M weekend, putting Rhapsody on track for $160M in the US.
OVERLORD (Paramount) had a dull opening with $3.9M on Friday ($900K of it from Thursday night), for a $10M weekend. It will need to show some fire overseas to get beyond breakeven on roughly $100M in production/marketing costs.
THE NUTCRACKER AND THE FOUR REALMS (Disney) fell 58% from last Friday to $2.5M and might reach $10M for the weekend, on its way to $55M in the US, which won’t make much of a dent in its $225M of total costs.
THE GIRL IN THE SPIDER’S WEB (MGM/Regency/Columbia/Sony) provides this week’s spectacle of the various production companies all claiming that the others will be bearing the brunt of the inevitable losses. With $3.1M on Friday ($600K from Thursday night), it may only earn $8M for the weekend, and it has at least $100M in costs.
The word of mouth continues to be red-hot for A STAR IS BORN (MGM/Warners), down just 28% to $2.3M on its 6th Friday, for an $8M weekend and a US total that now seems likely to pass $190M.
NOBODY’S FOOL (Paramount) fell a heavy 61% from last Friday to $1.8M, and may reach $6.5M for the weekend, on its way to $35M in the US, toward the bottom of Tyler Perry’s record as a director.
VENOM (Tencent/Columbia/Sony) dipped 35% on its 6th Friday to $1.3M, heading for a $5M weekend and $215M in the US.
THE HATE U GIVE (20th) lost another chunk of theatres and dropped 42% from last Friday to $500K. It might get to $2M for the weekend, and is still heading for $30M in the US.
THE FRONT RUNNER (Columbia/Sony) had a dim opening in 4 theatres on Election Day, and things aren’t improving for the weekend, with a lousy $10K per-theatre weekend average.
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