Its studio did everything in its corporate power to keep the quality of TRANSFORMERS: THE LAST KNIGHT (Huahua/Paramount) from infecting ticket sales, preventing any reviews from appearing until the projectors had started on the movie’s first paid screenings. But audiences knew what was coming, and in the US, Transformers 5 will be by far the weakest opening of the franchise. According to preliminary numbers at Deadline, it’s at $37.4M after 3 days of release (including $5.5M from Tuesday night), and although not all Transformers openings are apples to apples, since various installments have opened on a Tuesday and a Friday, the comparison to the other Wednesday openings are down 62% from 2011’s Dark of the Moon, and down 71% from 2009’s Revenge of the Fallen. Despite a decent Thursday-to-Friday bump of about 70%, the 5-day opening is still likely to be around $65M, down at least 50% from any other opening 5 days of the franchise. We’ll certainly be hearing about how little the US matters in the context of a huge overseas opening spearheaded by China, but remember that China withholds 3/4 of ticket revenue and still has a fragmentary ancillary market. Also, remember that for all the crowing over Warcraft‘s 89% international share of worldwide ticket sales, and its $200M+ in China, nobody has even talked about producing a Warcraft sequel since it opened–and while Transformers will make more than Warcraft‘s $433.6M worldwide, it also has much higher costs at $375M+.
WONDER WOMAN (RatPac/Wanda/Ten Cent/DC/Warners), on the other hand, is what a franchise looks like when it clicks. Down only about 30% on its 4th Friday to $7.5M, it’s now certain to become the highest-grossing entry of this DC universe in the US, and if it reaches a likely $375M, it will be ahead of all but 5 Marvel movies here: the 2 Avengers, the 3rd Iron Man and Captain Americas, and Guardians 2, an accomplishment it’s safe to say that no one saw coming.
CARS 3 (Pixar/Disney) dropped about 60% from last Friday to $8M, a better hold than Cars 2, which fell 69% on its 2d Friday. It’s heading for a $27M weekend and perhaps $165M at the US box office, around the level of The Boss Baby and a low number for a Pixar title.
47 METERS DOWN (Entertainment Studios) lost about 50% from last Friday to $2.2M, a reasonable drop for a low-budget action movie (The Shallows fell 57% on its 2d Friday). That still puts it on track for a mild $6.5M weekend and a US total that might nudge $40M.
THE MUMMY (Perfect World/Universal) continued on the down escalator, falling 55% from last Friday to $1.7M. That means a $6M weekend and a US total around $80M, another franchise that can only hope to be rescued abroad.
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MEN TELL NO TALES (Disney) is repeating last week’s strong hold as it nears the end of its US run, down just 25% to $1.8M. At this point, though, that still translates into a $6.5M weekend and $175M or so at home, down 30% from the franchise’s last entry.
ALL EYEZ ON ME (Morgan Creek/Lionsgate) collapsed by 85% from last Friday to $1.8M. That opening day was so frontloaded that the weekend number won’t be quite as ugly, but it’s still likely to drop close to 80% to $5.5M, and it may not get past $50M in the US, with low prospects overseas, shifting in the space of a a week from solid hit to breakeven proposition.
There was no good news for ROUGH NIGHT (Columbia/Sony), down more than 50% from last Friday to $1.6M, for a $5.5M weekend and a US total that might not get to $30M.
BEATRIZ AT DINNER (Roadside) expanded to a 491-theatre run that’s just shy of wide release, and it’s likely to average a soft $3500 per theatre for the weekend.
Perhaps the most surprising result of the weekend is the mild drop for the critically reviled THE BOOK OF HENRY (Focus/Universal), which added about 10% to its theatre count, and on a per-theatre basis should dip around 30% for the weekend. That certainly doesn’t make it a hit, with a per-theatre average around $1700 at 646, but audiences aren’t running away.
Both of the weekend’s high-profile limited releases are opening well. THE BIG SICK (Amazon/Lionsgate), with a start at 5 NY/LA theatres, should average $70K per theatre. THE BEGUILED (Focus/Universal), at 4, may average $60K.
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