AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON (Marvel/Disney) continues to be a monstrous hit–but not as monstrous as expected. Based on preliminary numbers at Deadline, its 2d Friday will be $21.9M, down 74% from last Friday’s $84.4M, and down 25% from the $29.2M 2d Friday of The Avengers. Ultron is heading for a Weekend 2 drop of 60% to $75M, compared to the 50% drop to $103M for Weekend 2 of Avengers. This puts the sequel on track for about $460-500M in the US, far less than the first movie’s $623M. There’s a good chance, of course, that the exploding China market (where Avengers made a mere $86M, less than one-third of what Furious 7 has earned there in the last month) may make up for that shortfall and more–but remember that US studios are only able to keep 25% of their box office gross in China, so Disney may still feel a small pinch on what is still a very big hit.
Ultron may not be all that its financiers had hoped, but it’s still easily dominating what is otherwise a very soft US market. The weekend’s “big” opening HOT PURSUIT (MGM/RatPac/Warners) had a lousy start at $4.2M, and only the possibility of a Mother’s Day bounce may lift it past $12M for the weekend. Although the purported comedy had a modest $35M production budget, it carries a full-force Warners marketing campaign and is in line to lose fair amount of money, along with generally embarrassing its producer/star Reese Witherspoon.
The weekend’s other semi-wide opening, the edgy Jack Black Sundance vehicle THE D TRAIN (IFC), is faring even worse. Its 1009 theatre opening managed just $150K on Friday, and may not get past $400K for the weekend, a terrible $400 per theatre average.
With no new strong openings, holdovers were generally solid. THE AGE OF ADALINE (Lionsgate) fell 33% from last Friday to $1.5M, and should benefit from Mother’s Day crowds to the tune of a $5M weekend. FURIOUS 7 (Universal) dropped 41% to $1.3M, on its way to a $4.5M weekend, as it continues heading to $350M in the US. PAUL BLART: MALL COP 2 (MGM/Columbia/Sony) dipped 25% to $1.2M and should also have a $4.5M weekend.
EX MACHINA (A24) expanded its theatre count by 55% to 2004, and saw its Friday rise by 21% to almost $900K, with a $3M weekend possible and hopes of reaching $20M in the US.
In limited release, FAR FROM THE MADDING CROWD (Fox Searchlight) expanded to 99 theatres and may have an unexciting $6K per-theatre average for the weekend. SAINT LAURENT (Sony Classics) is starting slow with a $7K per-theatre average in 4 NY/LA theatres.
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