X-MEN: DAYS OF FUTURE PAST (20th) was fated to walk away with Memorial Day Weekend, and it’s starting off its run in high style, with a preliminary $36M (including $8.1M from Thursday night) reported at Deadline and elsewhere. If that number holds, it would be the 3rd highest opening day of the year (behind $36.9M for Captain America: The Winter Soldier and $38.4M for Godzilla), even though the movie opened with a couple of small handicaps, having fewer Thursday night screenings than those two and no IMAX runs. With the holiday making for a stronger Sunday than usual, Days is on track for at least $92M by Sunday and $105M by Monday, and strong word-of-mouth could raise those numbers to as much as $100M/$120M.
The awful opening for BLENDED (Warners) confirms that Adam Sandler is only a star these days if his movie has Grown-Ups in the title. Opening day was even worse than expected at $4M, and it may earn just $12M by Sunday and $14M by Monday. Warners is already busily spinning these numbers 2 ways: first asserting that Blended is going to play like an animated movie, which could get it to $14M/$18M (doubtful) and then stressing that its production cost was just $45M (which doesn’t count another $100M+ in worldwide marketing costs). Sprinkling perfume on garbage doesn’t yield lasting results, though, and Blended‘s odor will be difficult to hide.
GODZILLA (Warners) was expected to take a hit with the arrival of X-Men, but its Friday-to-Friday drop of 77% (to $9M) was rather shocking. Godzilla, too, will benefit from a strong Sunday, and that should keep its weekend erosion (through Sunday) to 65%, but considering the holiday weekend, that’s nothing to feel good about. It could reach $32M by Sunday and $40M by Monday, and now seems headed for a US total around $225M.
Last weekend’s other opening MILLION DOLLAR ARM (Disney) is holding much better, albeit at a far lower level. It fell 45% Friday-to-Friday for $2M, and could have $8M by Sunday and $10M by Monday. It’s still looking at just $40M or so in the US all-in.
NEIGHBORS (Universal) fell over 50% from last Friday to $4M, and is headed to $13M by Sunday and $16M by Monday, with $140M as a likely US total. THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN 2 (Sony), hobbled by yet another CG spectacle in the neighborhood, dropped 55% from last Friday to $2M, and may get to $8-9M by Sunday and $10-11M by Monday, unlikely to get beyond $205M in the US, which would be more than $50M below the first Amazing.
CHEF (Open Road) widened to almost 500 theatres, and may have an OK $4K per-theatre average for the weekend through Sunday and $5K through Monday. That may put it on track for over $10M in the US, not a bad result for a low-budget indie, although it’ll be–sorry–eaten by marketing costs if the studio launches any kind of TV campaign.
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