Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #43 of 2014 looks like a decent $103 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, 17% above the norm for this weekend ($89 million).
Opening at 2,858 theaters, Ouija from Universal grossed $8.3 million Friday and is on track for a $20.0 million opening three-day weekend (somewhat below our $25.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a decent $7,000 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is very negative (12% positive overall and 21% positive with top critics). Ouija is headed for $46 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,589 theaters, John Wick from Lionsgate/Summit grossed $5.4 million Friday and is on track for a $15.1 million opening three-day weekend (near our $14.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a barely above average $5,800 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is quite positive (86% positive overall and 77% positive with top critics). John Wick is headed for $52 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,282 theaters, St. Vincent from Weinstein grossed $2.5 million Friday and is on track for a $7.9 million opening three-day weekend (well above our flawed $4.5 million forecast, which was based on an incorrect 600 theater count assumption). The film is pacing toward $3,500 per theater for the weekend — it will probably average over $8,000 in the 700 theaters it would naturally play in and closer to a $2,000 average in the 1,600 or so theaters that would not have normally booked this film. Critical sentiment is positive (74% positive overall and 67% positive with top critics). St. Vincent is headed for $31 million total domestic.
Fury is headed for $13.7 million this weekend (down 42% from last weekend and near our $13.4 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Fury has been adjusted to $84 million. Gone Girl is headed for $11.2 million this weekend (down 36% from last weekend and somewhat below our $12.3 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Gone Girl has been adjusted down to $157 million. The Book of Life is headed for $9.3 million this weekend (down 45% from last weekend and somewhat below our $10.9 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for The Book of Life has been adjusted to $54 million.
| Weekend 43: October 24-26, 2014 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Ouija | Uni | [25.0] | 20.0 | 8.3 | 46 | |
| John Wick | LG/Sum | [14.5] | 15.1 | 5.4 | 52 | |
| Fury | Sony | [13.4] | 13.7 | 4.1 | 84 | |
| Gone Girl | Fox | [12.3] | 11.2 | 3.5 | 157 | |
| The Book of Life | Fox | [10.9] | 9.3 | 2.4 | 54 | |
| St. Vincent | Weins | [4.5] | 7.9 | 2.5 | 31 | |
| Alexander and the Terrible… | Dis | [7.8] | 7.0 | 2.0 | 63 | |
| The Best of Me | Rel | [4.9] | 4.8 | 1.6 | 24 | |
| The Judge | WB | [4.9] | 4.2 | 1.3 | 45 | |
| Dracula Untold | Uni | [4.7] | 4.2 | 1.2 | 56 | |
| Annabelle | WB | [3.8] | 3.3 | 1.1 | 86 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $103 million total Friday-Sunday, up 17% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up 9% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 43 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $103 | Ouija $20.0, John Wick $15.1, St. Vincent $7.9 | |
| 2013 | $95 | Jackass Presents Bad Grandpa $32.1, The Counselor $7.8 | |
| 2012 | $81 | Cloud Atlas $9.6, Silent Hill: Revelation 3D $8.0, Fun Size $4.1 | |
| 2011 | $94 | Puss in Boots $34.1, In Time $12.1, The Rum Diary $5.1 | |
| 2010 | $85 | Saw 3D $22.5 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $89 | ||
Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.
About the Author
