September 19, 2015

FRIDAY 9.18.2015 Box Office Report

Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #38 of 2015 looks like $100 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, somewhat above the norm for the weekend (see track below).

Opening at 3,791 theaters Friday, Maze Runner: Scorch Trials from Fox is on track for a $28.0 million opening three-day weekend (well below our $40.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward an above average $7,400 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is mediocre (49% positive overall and a weak 26% positive with top critics). Maze Runner Scorch Trials is headed for $81 million total domestic.

Opening at 3,188 theaters Friday, Black Mass from Warner Brothers is on track for a $26.0 million opening three-day weekend (a touch below our $28.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward an above average $8,200 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is quite positive (76% positive overall and 82% positive with top critics). Black Mass is headed for $81 million total domestic.

Everest from Universal at 545 Imax theaters is heading for a $13,000 per theater average and $7.1 million for the weekend before it expands wide next week.  Captive from Paramount is headed for a soft $2.100 per theater at 806 theaters (a $1.7 million opening weekend).

Weekend 38: September 18-20, 2015 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Maze Runner: Scorch Trials Fox [40.5] 28.0 11.0 81
Black Mass WB [28.5] 26.0 8.82 81
The Visit Uni [10.8] 10.8 3.57 64
The Perfect Guy Sony [11.8] 10.0 3.03 60
Everest Uni [7.5] 7.1 2.30 n/a
War Room Sony [5.6] 6.7 1.85 63
A Walk in the Woods BG [3.0] 2.9 .88 31
Mission: Impossible — Rogue Nation Par [2.6] 2.4 .63 203
Straight Outta Compton Uni [2.0] 1.9 .58 164
Captive Par [—] 1.7 .65 4

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

Top Holdovers

The Visit is headed for $10.8 million this weekend (down -58% from last weekend and matching our $10.8 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $64 million.

The Perfect Guy is headed for $10.0 million this weekend (down -61% from last weekend and somewhat below our $11.8 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $60 million.

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a more than respectable $100 million total Friday-Sunday, up +15% from the average for the comparable weekend and up +8% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 38 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2015 $100 Maze Runner: Scorch Trials $28.0, Black Mass $26.0
2014 $92 Maze Runner $32.5, A Walk Among the Tombstone $12.8, This Is Where I Leave You $11.6
2013 $73 Prisoners $20.8, Battle of the Year $4.6
2012 $75 End of Watch $13.2, House at the End of the Street $12.3, Trouble with the Curve $12.2
Avg 2011-14 $87

Check back tomorrow for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.