Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #16 of 2013 is looking like $102 million for the top 12 films, down 19% from the same weekend last year and down 8% from the average the past few years for this weekend.
Opening at 3,783 theaters Friday, Oblivion from Universal grossed $13.3 million Friday and is on track for a $38.5 million opening weekend (somewhat above the $33.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is averaging a very solid $10,200 per theater for the weekend (well above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years), while critical sentiment is only slightly positive: 58% positive at RottenTomatoes (and a similar 56% with top critics). Oblivion is headed for $107 million total domestic.
Headed for $17.4 million in its second weekend (down a decent 37% from the opening), 42 has been upgraded to just over $100 million domestic.
| Weekend 16 April 19-21, 2013 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Oblivion | Uni | [33.0] | 38.5 | 13.3 | 107 | |
| 42 | WB | [18.9] | 17.4 | 5.2 | 101 | |
| The Croods | DW/Fox | [9.0] | 9.7 | 2.2 | 179 | |
| Scary Movie V | Weins | [5.3] | 6.6 | 2.1 | 34 | |
| G.I. Joe: Retaliation | Par | [5.8] | 5.8 | 1.5 | 127 | |
| Place Beyond the Pines | Focus | [5.2] | 4.4 | 1.4 | 26 | |
| Olympus Has Fallen | FilmDis | [4.6] | 4.4 | 1.2 | 99 | |
| Evil Dead | Sony | [4.2] | 4.0 | 1.4 | 56 | |
| Jurassic Park 3D | Uni | [4.2] | 3.9 | 1.1 | 50 | |
| Oz the Great and Powerful | Dis | [3.0] | 3.0 | .76 | 233 | |
| Tyler Perry’s Temptation | LG | [—] | 2.2 | .66 | 52 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $102 million total Friday-Sunday, down 8% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 19% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND #16 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2013 | $102 | Oblivion $38.5 | |
| 2012 | $126 | Think Like a Man $33, The Lucky One $22, Chimpanzee $10 | |
| 2011 | $121 | TP’s Madea’s Big Happy Family $25, Water for Elephants $17, African Cats $6 | |
| 2010 | $90 | The Back-Up Plan $12, The Losers $9, Oceans $6 | |
| 2009 | $104 | Obsessed $28, Fighting $11, The Soloist $10, Earth $9 | |
| Avg 2009-12 | $110 | ||
Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.
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