April 7, 2012


More articles by »
Written by: Mitch Metcalf
Tags: , , , , , ,


The 14th weekend of 2012 is looking like $119 million for the Top 12 films, up 15% from this weekend last year and up 11% from the four-year average for the same weekend.  The Hunger Games is heading for a very decent 45% drop this weekend (much better than the 62% drop in its second weekend), giving it comfortable lead at #1 this weekend.  Rather than opening in the $30 million range this weekend as we forecast, both American Reunion and Titanic 3D are looking more like $20 million openings.         

The Hunger Games grossed $12.9 million Friday and is headed for $32.5 million in its third weekend, down a very solid 44.5% from last weekend.  If the third weekend number holds, The Hunger Games will move past $300 million on Sunday.  Comparing it to movies with similar massive opening weekends, the 17-day total for The Hunger Games will lag The Dark Knight ($393.7 million 17-day) but will be pacing ahead of Spider-Man 3 ($282.4 million 17-day), Twilight Saga: New Moon ($255.4 million 17-day) and Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 ($246.9 million 17-day).  Our estimated final domestic for The Hunger Games is holding at $378 million.    

American Reunion from Universal opened with $9.2 million Friday for an estimated $22.5 million opening weekend, missing the $33 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  The comedy sequel is currently standing at a soft 43% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes and should average $7,050 this weekend at 3,191 theaters.  American Reunion is headed for a preliminary $77 million total domestic (compared to the $102.6 million domestic for American Pie in July 1999, $145.1 million for American Pie 2 in August 2001 and $104.5 million for American Wedding in August 2003). 

Titanic 3D from Paramount grossed $7.1 Friday and should hit $18 million from Friday-Sunday, below the overly bullish $32 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  The film should average $6,700 per the theater this weekend (a slightly above average figure) at 2,674 theaters.  With $8.4 million from its early Wednesday-Thursday opening, the re-release should total over $26 million through Sunday.  Titanic 3D is headed for $64 million total domestic.

 In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions

April 6-8, 2012         Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early    FRI    Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final

The Hunger Games (LG)    [$30.5]    $32.5   $12.9     $378
American Reunion (Uni)   [$33.0]    $22.5   $ 9.2     $ 77 
Titanic 3D (Par)         [$32.0]    $18.0   $ 7.1     $ 64
Wrath of the Titans (WB) [$15.5]    $14.5   $ 5.4     $ 87
Mirror Mirror (Rel)      [$24.0]    $11.5   $ 4.6     $ 64+
21 Jump Street (Sony)    [$ 9.5]    $ 9.5   $ 3.6     $135
The Lorax (Uni)          [$ 5.5]    $ 5.7   $ 2.3     $217
Salmon Fishing Yemen (CBS)[$1.0]    $ 1.0   $ 0.3      —
John Carter (Dis)        [$ 1.2]    $ 0.8   $ 0.3     $ 70

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final     column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.  

Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a decent $119 million total Friday-Sunday, up 15% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 11% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.  


Top 12 Films: Weekend #14

     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $119  American Reunion $22.5, Titanic 3D $18

2011  $103  Hanna $12 Arthur $12 Soul Surfer $11 Your Highness $9
2010  $119  Date Night $25
2009  $126  Hannah Montana $32, Observe and Report $11

2008  $ 81  Prom Night $21, Street Kings $12.5, Smart People $4
Avg   $107

Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.