August 2, 2014

FRIDAY AUGUST 1 Box Office Report

Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #31 of 2014 looks like $173 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, well above our forecast ($150 million) and 34% above the norm for this weekend ($129 million).

Opening at 4,080 theaters, Guardians of the Galaxy from Disney and Marvel grossed $37.7 million through Friday and is on track for a $96.0 million opening weekend (well above our $71.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $23,500 per theater for the weekend (over four times the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). This is a notch below the opening of Transformers: Age of Extinction in late June ($100.0 million Friday-Sunday opening and $23,633 per theater for the weekend at 4,233 theaters), but word of mouth should be much better for Guardians.  Critical sentiment is very strong (92% positive overall and 88% positive with top critics). Guardians of the Galaxy is headed for $282 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,466 theaters, Get On Up from Universal grossed $4.9 million Friday and is on track for a $14.7 million opening weekend (somewhat below our $17.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a mediocre three-day average of $5,900 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is favorable (76% positive overall and 79% positive with top critics). Get On Up is headed for $49 million total domestic.

Lucy is headed for $18.3 million this weekend (down 58% from last weekend but slightly above our $17.0 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for Lucy has been adjusted to $123 million. Hercules is headed for $10.6 million this weekend (down 64% from last weekend and below our $12.3 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for Hercules has been adjusted to $76 million. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes is headed for $8.6 million this weekend (down 49% from last weekend and near our $8.4 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for Dawn of the Planet of the Apes has been adjusted to $222 million.         

Weekend 31: August 1-3, 2014 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Guardians of the Galaxy Dis [71.0] 96.0 37.7 282
Lucy Uni [17.0] 18.3 5.5 123
Get On Up Uni [17.5] 14.7 4.9 49
Hercules Par [12.3] 10.6 3.2 76
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes Fox [8.4] 8.6 2.4 222
Planes: Fire & Rescue Dis [5.8] 6.0 1.8 64
The Purge: Anarchy Uni [4.7] 5.4 1.8 75
Sex Tape Sony [3.0] 3.5 1.1 39
And So It Goes Clar [2.7] 3.1 0.9 14
A Most Wanted Man Road [2.8] 2.6 0.8 n/a
Boyhood Par [2.8] 2.3 0.6 n/a

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $173 million total Friday-Sunday, up 34% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 41% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 31 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2014 $173 Guardians of the Galaxy $96.0, Get On Up $14.7
2013 $123 2 Guns $27.1, The Smurfs 2 $17.5
2012 $114 Total Recall $25.6, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days $14.6
2011 $158 Rise of the Planet Apes $54.8, The Change-Up $13.5
2010 $123 Dinner for Schmucks $23.5, Charlie St. Cloud $12.4, Cats & Dogs 2 $12.3
Avg 2010-13 $129

Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.