Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #33 of 2014 looks like a modest $124 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, below our forecast ($140 million) and 7% above the norm for this weekend ($116 million).
Playing at 3,094 theaters, Let’s Be Cops from Fox grossed $5.6 million Friday and is on track for a $17.1 million opening three-day weekend (somewhat below our $20.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a perfectly average three-day average of $5,500 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Including the $8.4 million gross Wednesday and Thursday, the comedy should total $25.8 million through Sunday for the first five days. Critical sentiment is uniformly weak (11% positive overall and 13% positive with top critics). Let’s Be Cops is headed for $65 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,221 theaters Friday, The Expendables 3 from Lionsgate/Summit grossed $5.9 million through Friday and is on track for a $15.8 million opening weekend (well below our $25.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a somewhat sub-par three-day average of $4,900 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is pretty weak (35% positive overall and 10% positive with top critics). The Expendables 3 is headed for $44 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,003 theaters Friday, The Giver from Weinstein grossed $4.7 million Friday and is on track for a $13.3 million opening weekend (very close to our $13.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a sub-par three-day average of $4,400 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is soft (30% positive overall and 30% positive with top critics). The Giver is headed for $36 million total domestic.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles is headed for $26.7 million this weekend (down 59% from last weekend and near our $27.3 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for TMNT has been adjusted down slightly to $175 million. Guardians of the Galaxy is headed for $23.8 million this weekend (down 44% from last weekend and near our $23.2 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Guardians of the Galaxy has been adjusted up slightly to $290 million. Into the Storm is headed for $7.3 million this weekend (down 58% from last weekend and near our $7.9 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Into the Storm has been adjusted down slightly to $44 million.
| Weekend 33: August 15-17, 2014 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles | Par | [27.3] | 26.7 | 7.9 | 175 | |
| Guardians of the Galaxy | Dis | [23.2] | 23.8 | 6.9 | 290 | |
| Let’s Be Cops | Fox | [20.0] | 17.1 | 5.6 | 65 | |
| The Expendables 3 | LG/Sum | [25.0] | 15.8 | 5.9 | 44 | |
| The Giver | Weins | [13.5] | 13.3 | 4.7 | 36 | |
| Into the Storm | WB | [7.9] | 7.3 | 2.3 | 44 | |
| The Hundred-Foot Journey | Dis | [6.7] | 6.9 | 2.1 | 42 | |
| Lucy | Uni | [5.1] | 5.2 | 1.6 | 122 | |
| Step Up All In | LG/Sum | [3.1] | 2.3 | .76 | 15 | |
| Boyhood | IFC | [—] | 1.9 | .54 | n/a | |
| Hercules | Par | [2.8] | 1.9 | .58 | 73 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $124 million total Friday-Sunday, up 7% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up a modest 2% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 33 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $124 | Let’s Be Cops $17.1, The Expendables 3 $15.8, The Giver $13.3 | |
| 2013 | $121 | Lee Daniels’ The Butler $24.6, Kick-Ass 2 $13.3, Jobs $6.7 | |
| 2012 | $127 | The Expendables 2 $28.6, ParaNorman $14.1, Sparkle $11.6 | |
| 2011 | $106 | Spy Kids: All Time World $11.6, Conan the Barbarian $10.0 | |
| 2010 | $110 | The Expendables $34.8, Eat Pray Love $23.1, Scott Pilgrim $10.6 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $116 | ||
Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.
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