February 22, 2014

FRIDAY FEBRUARY 21 Box Office Report

Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #8 of 2014 looks like $100 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, slightly below this weekend’s average the past several years but well above last year’s weak showing this weekend.  Two new films misfired this weekend, while Lego Movie continues to reign.

Opening at 2,872 theaters Friday, 3 Days to Kill from Relativity grossed $4.0 million Friday, putting the film on track for a $12.1 million opening weekend (slightly better than our $10.2 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $4,200 per theater for the weekend ( below the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is weak (25% positive overall and 16% positive with top critics). 3 Days to Kill is headed for $32 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,658 theaters Friday, Pompeii from Sony/TriStar grossed $3.4 million Friday, putting the film on track for a $9.8 million opening weekend (slightly below our $10.8 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $3,700 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is also weak (30% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and only 21% positive with top critics). Pompeii is headed for around $26 million total domestic.

Weekend 8: February 21-23, 2014 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
The Lego Movie WB [33.7] 33.3 7.3 290
3 Days to Kill Rel [10.2] 12.1 4.0 32
Pompeii Sony [10.8] 9.8 3.4 26
RoboCop Sony [10.8] 8.6 2.6 59
The Monuments Men Sony [8.9] 8.2 2.3 83
About Last Night Sony [12.3] 7.4 2.3 54
Frozen 3D Dis [4.2] 5.3 1.0 395
Ride Along Uni [4.8] 4.6 1.3 138
Endless Love
Uni [5.2] 4.4 1.5 25
Lone Survivor Uni [—] 2.1 0.5 130
Winter’s Tale WB [3.3] 2.0 0.7 13

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $100 million total Friday-Sunday, down -6% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend but up 13% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 8 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2014 $100 3 Days to Kill $12.1, Pompeii $9.8
2013 $88 Snitch $13.2, Dark Skies $8.2
2012 $114 Act of Valor $24.5, TP’s Good Deeds $15.6, Wanderlust $6.5, Gone $4.8
2011 $96 Hall Pass $13.5, Drive Angry 3D $5.2
2010 $107 Cop Out $18.2, The Crazies $16.1
Avg 2010-13 $106

Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.